Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have both positioned the 2024 election as a battle to maximize voter turnout. For much of the campaign, voter galvanization efforts have favored Republicans, but a new study from polling and data firm TargetSmart suggests that Harris and newly energized Democrats have finally flipped the MAGA movement’s script.
in Thread posted on X (formerly Twitter) Tom Bonnier, senior advisor at TargetSmart, shared some surprising research from his group: Democrats made record gains among every major voter group, crushing Republicans in more than a dozen states that have updated their voter files since late last month.
Black women ages 18-29 led the increase, increasing voter registration by 175.8% compared to the same period in 2020. Hispanic voters have also rushed to register since Harris became the Democratic nominee, with registrations among young Hispanic women increasing by an astounding 149.7% and Hispanic voter registration increasing by more than 60% overall.
Women weren’t the only ones rushing to register. Black voter registrations increased 85.8% compared to 2020, and Asian Americans increased 31.7%. Democrats overall saw a 51.2% increase in registrations, while Republicans only increased 7%. This is a landmark figure not just for Harris but for all Democrats, and Bonnier said these voters are showing higher enthusiasm than when Biden defeated Trump four years ago.
“That doesn’t happen in a normal election,” Bonider told CBS News on Wednesday, adding that the data shows voters are “engaged and wanting to participate in this election.”
The numbers back up Bonnier’s confidence. Gallup poll released this week The survey found that 78% of Democrats say they are more eager to vote than usual, roughly matching the all-time high set in 2008, when then-Senator Barack Obama rode a wave of voter enthusiasm to the White House. By comparison, just 6 in 10 Republicans say they are more eager to vote than usual, a lower percentage than this time in 2020.
These numbers don’t just represent a “fanatic” base of voters. The latest benchmark of Democratic turnout surge came after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the House majority split in 2022. Roe v. Wade There’s also a push to repeal constitutional abortion rights as record numbers of first-time voters cast ballots. Bonnier said what he calls the “Harris effect” has now surpassed even the staggering numbers for 2022 and shows no signs of slowing down.
That’s a big change from where Democrats were just six weeks ago. President Joe Biden Struggling to capture Democratic Party’s support baseDemocratic officials have openly worried about polls in June that showed Biden losing badly in the polls. Young Voters, Black Americansand Hispanic Voters Trump won, and with him, key battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
There is growing evidence that Ms. Harris’ dynamic campaign has not only re-energized skeptical groups but has also soared interest and enthusiasm in the race in a way that Republicans have struggled to counterbalance. Sun Belt states like Arizona and Nevada, once seen as Trump’s winning spots, are now back in the spotlight. But that’s not all. Bloomberg News/Morning Consult Poll The report, released Thursday, found that Harris was either leading or tied with Trump in all seven key battleground states.
“If you look at the fluctuations in the polls over the last few weeks, a lot of it is actually down to persuadable voters,” Bonnier said. He told CNN’s Manu Raju..
“The beauty of the Harris team is that they don’t have to choose one path to beat Trump in the Electoral College,” Bonnier added. Meanwhile, Trump’s path to the White House has narrowed considerably as Republicans pour money into once-safe states. North Carolina and Georgia.
Next comes the difficult step of getting newly registered voters to vote. In 2008, the Obama campaign spent millions of dollars building an infrastructure to reach new voters and garner their support. Ensuring voters show up to the polls On Election Day, Harris is now: Over $540 million raised With just over a month of campaigning under his belt, Trump certainly has the financial wherewithal to mount a larger voter mobilization campaign than Obama, but he only has two months to actually get a national network up and running.
There’s no doubt that Biden’s decision to step down and endorse Harris was the catalyst for the recent huge increase in Democratic voter registration. By listening to voters’ requests, Harris and the Democratic Party registered many people who had never voted before and re-engaged millions of disaffected voters. Republicans, almost a year after victory seemed certain, have been unable to come close to that level of engagement and voter mobilization.
Harris’ debate with Trump on September 10 will be her biggest opportunity yet to convince voters of her vision for America. She will be speaking to an engaged and optimistic electorate across the country whose numbers — and getting them to the polls in November — could mean the difference between a vibrant democracy and a bleak future of MAGA authoritarianism.
