November 8, 2024
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What President Trump can and probably can’t do to reverse U.S. climate change policy
The next new president can do more than simply withdraw from the Paris Agreement. But clean energy policies may be harder to reverse
In 2019, then-President Donald Trump visited a liquid natural gas facility in Hackberry, Louisiana.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
The following essay is reproduced with permission. 
conversationan online publication covering the latest research.
As the United States prepares for the incoming Trump administration, one area of ​​focus for the president-elect is climate policy.
Donald Trump has not announced an official climate agenda, but here is his strategy and his strategy from his last term in the Oval Office: Frequent complaints about clean energy It gives you a hint of what’s to come.
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Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement
Trump officially became president in 2017, less than six months after his first inauguration. announced that he was withdrawing US From the Paris Climate Agreement– A 2015 international agreement signed by nearly all countries committing to work to limit rising temperatures and other effects of climate change.
The bigger, but underappreciated, risk this time around is that President Trump will not stay in the Paris Agreement.
In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Agreement again, President Trump may attempt to withdraw from the United States. From the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 1992 Convention is the cornerstone of international climate negotiations. Withdrawing from this treaty would make it nearly impossible for future governments to rejoin the UNFCCC Convention. That’s because doing so would require the consent of two-thirds of the Senate.
The repercussions of such a step will be felt all over the world. Although the Paris Agreement is not legally binding, Based on trust and leadershipthe stance taken by the world’s largest economy influences how other countries behave.
It would also hand climate leadership to China.
U.S. funding to help other countries expand clean energy and adapt to climate change has increased significantly under the Biden administration. America’s first international climate finance plan Provides US$11 billion in support in 2024 Emerging and developing countries. And a promise from the US International Development Finance Corporation soars It was nearly $14 billion in Biden’s first two years in office, compared to $12 billion during the four years of the Trump administration. Biden also pledged $3 billion to the United Nations. green climate fund.
Under President Trump, all of these efforts are likely to be scaled back again.
Targeting clean energy may not be so easy
But Trump may not be as successful in other areas.
he raised his voice as follows Roll back clean energy policy. But it may be difficult for him to rule out the Biden administration’s massive investments in clean energy, which are factored into much-needed infrastructure and manufacturing investments in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Anti-Inflation Act. do not have.
Both laws were passed by Congress, so President Trump would need a majority in both chambers to repeal them.
Even if Republicans end up in a triumvirate, controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, repealing these laws will be difficult. This is because the benefits of the law are flowing in greatly. red state. Trump’s Allies in the oil and gas industry They also benefit from the act’s tax credits for carbon capture, advanced biofuels, and hydrogen.
But while inflation control laws may not be repealed, they will almost certainly be adjusted. Tax credits for consumers who purchase electric vehicles also appear to be in jeopardy, as do tightened EPA regulations. exhaust pipe pollution This makes battery-powered cars uneconomical for many people.
Maybe Trump too. Department of Energy’s Office of Loan Programs slows down workwhich has contributed to the promotion of several clean energy industries. Again, this is not surprising – he did it during his first term – but the impact will be greater given that the office’s lending capacity has increased since then. Soars to over $200 billionthanks to the Inflation Control Act. So far, only about a quarter of the total amount has been donated, so there is an urgent need to accelerate the pace of donations ahead of the inauguration of the new government in January.
Drill, baby, drill?
President Trump also says: increase fossil fuel productionAnd he will almost certainly take steps to boost the industry through deregulation and opening up more federal land for drilling. But the prospects for a significant increase in oil and gas production look bleak.
The United States already produces more oil than any other country in history. Oil and gas companies buy back shares and pay dividends They offer investments to shareholders at a record pace, but they wouldn’t do so if they thought there were better investment opportunities.
The futures curve indicates that oil prices will decline in the future, which could be further weighed down by factors such as: a slowdown in demand due to the resulting economic downturn; If President Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on all imports, there is a risk that profitability will decline.
President Trump will likely try to make a comeback. Climate policy related to fossil fuels and emissions, Main causes of climate changelike he did Dozens of policies in his first administration.
It also includes the abolition of a new federal government. Charging for methane emissions Emissions from Certain Facilities – The U.S. government’s first attempt to impose a fee or tax on greenhouse gas emissions. Methane is the main component of natural gas and is a powerful greenhouse gas.
Trump too promised to support Approval of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal. Biden administration tried to pause and that is still working to slow down.
The market has a say in the future of clean energy
One of the clean energy sources offered by President Trump Nuclear energy is likely to follow suit..
And despite his criticism of wind and solar power, market trends are pushing back investments in renewable energy, especially as onshore wind and utility-scale solar projects gain traction. It is likely to continue to increase. More cost-effective than coal or gas.
Nevertheless, the pace of investment is likely to slow due to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and regulatory and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration. The expected inflationary effects of his economic policies are likely to offset that impact. Benefits from lower capital costs This money was expected to flow out as central banks cut interest rates this year. This is an intolerable outcome for a warming planet.
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