See Mike Dolan’s upcoming days in the US and global markets
This week, Rensoral Geopolitis continues to win most headlines, but it creeps up fears about the slower US economy, which is the most unsettling of Wall Street stocks.
Noting Wednesday’s results from Megacap Chip Giant Nvidia, the S&P500 lost its 6,000 handles on Monday for the first time in three weeks, with both the high-tech Nasdaq and Small Cap Russell 2000 being negative this year.
Even the only 1% increase in the 2025 S&P 500 so far is one-third of the MSCI nationally, well below the 13% of the German Blue Chip DAX. relief.
The S&P500’s VIX “Fear Index” exceeded 20 for the first time since February 3rd, aiming for the best end of the year than today’s Bell.
In addition to technology ahead of Nvidia’s update, stock indexes in mainland China and Hong Kong have more than 1% on Tuesday after President Bloomberg Trump said he plans to tighten plans to tighten China’s chip restrictions I lost it. Technology development.
“schedule”
Trump has maintained trade threats on previous burners, and tariffs on Canada and Mexico’s imports ahead of the March 4 deadline, despite movements in both countries regarding border security and fentanyl trafficking, ahead of the March 4th deadline, tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico He said overnight that it was “on time and on schedule.”
Still, market uncertainty about US stocks was raised even closer to home, with US stock futures remaining in red overnight.
In addition to technology uncertainty, this week’s economic numbers continue to challenge the “no landing” consensus, which has recently accumulated overall activity direction.
Uncertainty of impact weighs business and consumer plans as a series of new policy initiatives with import duties, immigrant curbs, federal workers cuts and the breakdown of international alliances There is concern.
Retail sales have been disappointed in the new year, and business research has begun to splash, with one last week indicating that the dominant US services sector has signed its first contract for the first time in two years this month.
A Dallas and Chicago Federal Reserve investigations strengthened the IV of slower activities on Monday.
Meanwhile, a University of Michigan household survey on Friday showed consumer confidence at 15 months lows in February, and today’s meeting committee’s comparable consumer sentiment readings were Tuesday’s trading session It can be extremely important in the case.
The consensus prediction is to drop from the 5-month low from the gauge.
The overwhelming picture is best captured by its decline in the US Economic Surprise Index over the past week, becoming the most negative since September.
Consumer trust
Also, there is a growing fear that inventory shakeouts could exacerbate consumer trust hideouts by robbing the “wealth effect” of wealthy households that control the total retail spending. .
Concerns are important enough to shift the dial to the Treasury.
Treasury yields for 10 years have closed 20 basis points losses within two weeks to a low of 4.33%. The two-year yield has reached 4.11%, a low of 4.11% since December 11th.
And even Fed Futures sat down and noticed – another fare cut that was fully priced by July again, and two or more full cuts had been completely reduced over the course of the year.
In that environment, so far, the dollar has been very stable – sandwiched between domestic economic stumbling and yield movements and future tariff pressures. The Mexican peso, the Canadian dollar and the Chinese yuan were slightly weaker.
However, the broader market risk environment is fraying at the edges.
Bitcoin returned to under $90,000 for the first time in a month, the lowest since November, shortly after Trump’s election was about to enter a new era in the crypto world.
Elsewhere, the focus continues to be on the outperformance of European stocks. There is hope that cheap valuations, repatriation of European money from Wall Street, and the results of this week’s German elections and the overall euro finances will play a role.
Despite losses on Wall Street and China over the past 24 hours, the Pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.3% on Tuesday.
Three years ago invasions of Russia’s three-year-old countries send shockwaves throughout Europe, and the troubling US-Kremlin broker to end the Ukrainian war without rolling back that defense spending is a major priority I’m afraid the contract has concluded.
The European Aerospace and Defense Index jumped again on Tuesday, adding 1.3% as traders pointed to reports that Germany was debating 20 billion euros in the Emergency Defense Fund.
Major developments that should offer more direction to the US market later on Tuesday:
*US Congress Committee’s February Consumer Trust Survey, Richmond Federal Reserve February Business Survey, Dallas Fed Feb Services Survey
*Dallas Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Rory Logan, President of the Federal Reserve, Michael Barr, and Chief of Richmond Fried Thomas Birkin, speaks all. European Central Bank Board member Isabel Schnabel and Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill Speak
*US corporate revenue: Home Depot, First Solar, Workday, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Public Service Enterprise, Sempra, Pinnacle West, Intutes, Henry Shine, American Tower, Axon, Caesar Entertainment, Keysight, Extra Space Storage, etc.
*The US Treasury sells $70 billion five-year memos
