Do you think that’s yes to the comments that I and Aisha were talking correctly?
Arvind Sanger: Yes, I agree greatly. Our problem is its own. But I’m worried about uncertainty about US policy and frankly trying to cut interest rates and cost. But as you discussed, as we’ve mentioned before, India is already slowing down. So let’s take a look and see what’s happened so far. The best-performing markets in the world, Europe and China are listed in Hong Kong, and even in some emerging markets like Mexico and Brazil, India is lagging behind, and India’s growth fell early.
So, to that extent, India could be 70-80% of the way in terms of sold out, but that was quick.
But will India become market leaders in 2025, like 23 and 24? I think it depends frankly on what you are discussing, what the Indian government is doing, what the regulators do, what the central bank is doing. Looking at Europe, Germany has unveiled a big bazooka in terms of its important capabilities. It helped the European market. China is starting to do that. So, in the fear of a recession or a global slowdown, the easiest thing to do is sit in your hands and hide in treasures and things like that. But what’s even more interesting is that if Trump wants to structurally lower the dollar, unlike the US, it could be a place where emerging markets like Europe and foreign markets like Europe can function.
For the Indian audience here, what should they do? I mean, is it the worst? Should they go back to the back of the truck and start loading, or start loading Abhi Delhi Door High?
Arvind Sanger: I think you need to be patient. My only concern is that if I could be cruelly honest, Indians would have bought it while foreigners were selling it last October. So Smart Money was sold early. Unfortunately, looking at the data, I kept buying stupid money for a long time. So the question is really, have we ever seen ukes from domestic investors and domestic investors completely escape the facts and slow down? And if we saw a few more fixes like the last investor taking money on the sidelines, it would be more interesting. Relying on foreigners, they sell and when they buy, the market rises. I think that part is already over. The question is where are domestic investors?
Is there a good awareness that India is not affected by the cycle? India is not, ratings are important. All of these things can slowly start rebounding into a reasonable market if some kind of hot money comes out forever because some rationality is coming back and stupid money is thrown into the IPO.
Euphoria is what sets us on this pullback and I’m slowly nibbing, but I don’t see any signs of complete surrender.
So, once everything settles in the interim, what will work out, both the dust in the US will fall, and perhaps India’s rebound? And is China obvious trade?
Arvind Sanger: Well, China clearly is one of the best plays with sort of ratings, even after this rebound. He is also one of the winners of AI. Now, let me be honest. India is probably one of the biggest risks of AI. Using software for programming is fast and heavy, and the impact on AI and India for programming is not clear.
So, in India we focus on consumption-related companies facing India’s domestic, other beneficiaries of India’s kind of mitigation, and perhaps some high-quality finances. These are the places I go. However, China has more levers in both ratings and AI-type winners.
In India it must be related to more domestic consumption and other domestic demand. And Europe has been dogs for a few years.
So, let’s see which dog was there. Their reviews are very appealing. India is attractive, but not very appealing compared to them. So, it will work if India starts to regain growth, but I don’t think it will become a runaway market in 2025.
I’m just summarizing our interviews. What you’re saying is that our market was mostly Humpty Dumpty. Humpty Dumpty had to make a big fall. That big autumn will happen and they could fall a little more. Previously, the US market was shaking the world when it once collapsed. This time, it may differ as other markets have been revised. For Indian audiences, they should not be too worried about the collapse of the US market as they have already been revised ahead of this US market correction. But once the dust settles, India may return, but it may not be the best market of 2025. Global investors may lean towards 2025. Did you summarise it correctly?
Arvind Sanger: absolutely. There are opportunities, but you will need to choose which sector to pursue.
Have you ever bought anything in India this fall? In other words, I just want to understand. Have you ever bought anything? Have you added some positions? Have you ever bitten into anything?
Arvind Sanger: Yes, we’re nibbling on a few things, and we’re trying to put up a high quality financial and other special situation once more. They’re not chasing the speculative mid-cap and small cap of the second third tier. Again, there are some high quality companies in small and midcaps, but don’t say that. But it’s quality rather than risk.
