The liberal media has gone all in on Kamala Harris, reflecting Democrats’ efforts to make her inclusion in the 2024 presidential race seem like a big boost.
Liberal pollster Nate Silver doesn’t believe that, saying Trump still has a good chance of winning the November election.
This is in stark contrast to what we hear almost everywhere in the media.
New York Post report:
Despite Harris’ rise, Trump remains a strong contender in 2024: Nate Silver
Despite the Democrats’ dramatic moves to recapture the presidency and appear to be gaining momentum, prominent election analyst and statistician Nate Silver still sees former President Donald Trump as the front-runner.
His election forecasting model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared with Vice President Kamala Harris’ 38.1% chance.
When he released his model last month, Silver predicted a 65.7% chance of Trump beating President Biden.
In his latest assessment, Silver cited numerous polling averages that give Trump slight advantages nationally and in most battleground states, with the exception of Wisconsin, where Harris held a lead…
FiveThirtyEight was one of the few election forecasters to predict that Biden was likely to win the 2024 presidential election.
Hot Air Jazz Show I commented on this:
Nate Silver sees Donald Trump’s chances of winning dropping from 65.7% to 61.3%, while Kamala Harris’ chances have risen from the mid-30s to 38.1% – still a pretty healthy margin. It’s possible that this analysis is wrong, but you have to go back quite a bit in history to find an example where Nate has been wrong by such a large margin.
I see Silver being quoted as often as I do on Fox News, and in that sense, if you’ll pardon the precious metals pun, he has become the gold standard in election analysis. He doesn’t base his predictions on his own political preferences (whatever that may be), but on the accuracy rates of other pollsters he tracks.
That last point is important: Silver is simply stating his opinion based on data.
We’ll soon find out if he’s right.
