Leah Stokes is an energy policy expert. A professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, she helped craft the Biden administration’s signature climate legislation, the Inflation Control Act, and in the summer of 2022, helped build the grassroots support needed to pass the bill through Congress. helped collect.
While she was pushing this bill, Stokes had just given birth to twins, one of whom required medical care. Stokes spent countless hours on the phone from the neonatal intensive care unit. For more on her work with IRAs, visit time magazine identified Stokes is one of 100 “rising stars” from around the world. The quote describes her as “a thoughtful leader, researcher, expert communicator, and organizer all rolled into one dynamic and highly entertaining person.”
With Donald Trump retaking the White House and Republicans set to take control of both houses of Congress, key provisions of the IRA appear to be at risk. In September, President Trump said If elected, he said he would “cancel all unused funds under the misnamed IRA.” His transition team is said to be particularly keen on eliminating the bill’s tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles. But pushback is expected from companies and districts that benefit from IRAs, including Republicans whose districts will be most affected.
E360 Contributor Elizabeth Colbert spoke with Stokes about the IRA’s prospects, clean energy policy and possible future action on climate change.
Leah Stokes.
Lucy Lou
Elizabeth Colbert: The Inflation Control Act was passed entirely with Democratic votes. But large sums of money are flowing into red districts for new battery and electric vehicle factories, projects that would have brought jobs and garnered political support. It seems like the Democrats really didn’t get any credit for that. It also seems to have failed to create a new base of support for clean energy, which I think was the political hope.
Leah Stokes: Yes, this law is based on industrial policy theory. This means that if we build something in America, it creates jobs in every corner of the country, which upholds our laws. I don’t know the answer to that story yet. That will become clear within the next two years.
I believe that corporate lobbying keeps many laws in place. I truly believe so. The main things that are arranged on the table are [clean energy] That’s because most of the subsidies will be disbursed by the time the Biden administration ends in early January. These tax credits benefit businesses, and we’re already seeing reports that even the weakest tax credit (I think the EV tax credit) has a constituency to protect it. . Companies are making investments that take years to really pay off, and they don’t get a penny back.
And given the manufacturing investments being made in these Republican districts, it’s not just manufacturing jobs that are important. You start to realize that all the money you invest in making things in America, you also want to sell that thing in America. And selling it in America requires other tax credits for deployment. That’s where technology-neutral tax credits for clean power, home energy efficiency tax credits, residential solar power tax credits, EV tax credits, and more kick in.
“The work that’s being done across the agency to integrate environmental justice…I think all of that is pretty much at risk.”
However, I think this will be a much more tenacious policy than many people think. I wrote a history of the production tax credit. [aimed at boosting wind energy]an investment tax credit first passed in 1992 under George H.W. Bush. [aimed at boosting solar energy]first passed in 2005 under the George W. Bush administration. And those policies, hey, people kept trying to kill the policies. They kept trying not to extend it and just stuck it out. Maybe they’ll stay here for three months, there for six months, and then they’ll come back. That was decades ago, and the solar and wind industries are no longer emerging industries. They are a large employer in the United States.
Colbert: What is not working particularly well in your IRA?
Stokes: I feel like there was a real perfectionism in the Biden administration to make sure every dollar was spent in an absolutely perfect way. This looked pretty ridiculous when all this money was sitting in the government’s coffers the day after the November election, as the government was trying to make sure the entire amount was spent perfectly.
Colbert: But will most of the actual grants have already been disbursed by the time they arrive in January?
Stokes: Most certainly. That’s not all. There will also be some pretty painful losses. I’m particularly concerned about the Community Change Grant. [aimed at helping disadvantaged communities cut pollution and prepare for climate change]. Community solar projects and more can receive up to $20 million. It’s really hard to get all that money out.
Colbert: Environmental justice appears to be on the brink.
stokes: All the work done across government agencies to integrate environmental justice, for example, how to distribute subsidies to ensure funds and benefits flow to disadvantaged communities, is at considerable risk. I think it’s exposed to.
Colbert: And now we’re probably going to leave the Paris Agreement again.
Stokes: Well, I think it’s going to demoralize people, but the fact is that America will still continue to make progress. In 2016, we saw many cities, states, and counties say, “We’re still in this situation.” So I think there’s actually still a lot of progress to be made. What’s interesting about the transition to clean energy is that it has a lot to do with the companies investing in and profiting from the transition. I think that will be the driving force to continue moving forward in the absence of federal leadership.
“Crony capitalism may emerge, where the interests of specific companies are prioritized over the interests of the industry as a whole.”
Colbert: But at the state level, you write about how companies that don’t want progress are good at undermining state laws. I wonder why I think it won’t happen again.
Stokes: Now, the theory I proposed in the book is [Short Circuiting Policy] That is, the opponents were stronger than the supporters. I believe that the defenders are starting to become stronger than the opponents and that will change the dynamics. I think so just because Elon Musk, who made his fortune in electric cars, solar power, and batteries, has such a prominent role in this administration, whether he likes it or not. .
Last time [Exxon CEO] Rex Tillerson becomes Secretary of State. That’s the difference. [This time] There are people like Elon. He has other interests.
Now, what we might see, for example when it comes to the EV tax credit, could be more like crony capitalism, where the interests of specific companies are prioritized over the interests of the industry as a whole. Maybe they’re discontinuing it because it’s not really in Tesla’s interest, but Tesla is much more advanced and it gives Tesla a competitive advantage that other companies don’t have. How exactly that will happen remains to be determined.
Colbert: Many are saying, “There’s a lot of energy and momentum behind this transition, and President Trump can slow it down, but he can’t stop it.” However, the issue here is speed. How much damage can President Trump do?
Stokes: Well, I’ll look into it. I think it will take him two years. I feel like it could swing in a different direction. [in the 2026 midterm elections]. When that happens, they begin to have fewer opportunities to do legislative work.
Of course I agree about speed. To truly address this transition, we must not have so much whiplash in the policy arena. If depolarization is starting to happen now, it could be of great value in terms of transition. you are thinking about someone [Republican] senator [John] curtis [of Utah]. Senator Curtis’ home is fully electrified. Now he’s in the Senate and he’s saying things like: [I.R.A] Outside. We will make fine adjustments. ”
Perhaps we’re returning to an era where high-profile figures like Elon Musk are in senior leadership positions, where their work in the district can earn them at least some constructive engagement from the Republican Party. I don’t know.
“There are many reasons to be scared and upset, but when it comes to climate, I’m less depressed than most.”
When we talk about depolarizing climate change, I think there is a folk theory in our minds that says we should all get along, believe in science, and journey into the future together. Probably not. It would probably be something like Elon Musk becoming a shadow president and worrying about solar and batteries, which would piss off a lot of leftists like me who wouldn’t agree with all of his policies. However, the facts are as follows. He is making huge investments in clean energy and electrification.
If we are truly left-handed progressives, that may not be what the transition looks like, but it may be what the transition looks like. teeth It will look like this. And when it comes to climate change policy, that world is better than complete reduction or elimination.
I’m not saying it’s better when it comes to immigration policy or women’s rights or a thousand other things – our democracy. There are various reasons why people have a right to be really scared or upset, but when it comes to the climate, I’m no more depressed than most.
Colbert: Can you see a depolarized future here?
Stokes: The Republican Party has long been tied to corporate interests of all kinds. It has simply been tied to the special interests of the fossil fuel industry for decades. Wouldn’t it be great to have someone who rivals the fossil fuel industry in terms of relations with the Republican Party?
Hyundai’s EV factory will be built in Elabelle, Georgia in August 2023. This factory is supported by IRA tax credits.
Stephen B. Morton/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Colbert: In any case, you pointed out that the Inflation Control Act would not be able to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. You’ll need something of similar size. And that won’t happen for the next four years. Can you see it when you peer over the distant horizon or into the future?
Stokes: Well, in some ways I think 2029 is a better opportunity to pass climate policy than 2025. Democrats already had this idea [dealt with climate change]unfortunately it wasn’t true.
There were many other topics I wanted to talk about. [in this election]. I think that in 2029 there will be even more enthusiasm for climate change policy. The challenge is that you have so little time left that you really need to push [climate] But that’s not really how the legislative system works or how the activist community works. It’s really hard to do everything we all got [the I.R.A.] I passed, do I have to try again? It’s quite difficult.
Colbert: I hear your twin’s voice in the background. What message do you want them to hear? They are the generation that may be in the year 2100.
Stokes: many people [who worked on the I.R.A.] This is the most important thing I can do to protect my children. If you look at young Republicans, it feels like more and more of them believe in climate change. They know things like this happen. Perhaps that is what depolarization will ultimately look like. That’s probably a good thing, because the current situation isn’t great.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
