Why the mid-winter of strength wins where no alcohol fails

The fastest growing category in the wine industry is not what you might expect.

While no-alcoholic and low-alcoholic wines have grabbed headlines, new research reviews suggest that medium-intensive wines (sitting at 6-10% alcohol) could ultimately become sweet spots that make shrink-alcoholic products mainstream. While the annual growth rate was 12% between 2023 and 2027, the NO-LOW-MID (NLM) wine category has changed the way you think about drinking, psychology could actually determine which products are successful.

Dr. Hannah Ford Comprehensive review at Adelaide Business School We analyzed 38 peer-reviewed studies to understand what drives consumer interest in NLM wines. The findings reveal a complex web of social pressures, personal identity and surprising gender dynamics that the wine business is just beginning to understand.

Gender paradox in wine psychology

“The global wine industry is evolving rapidly in response to the growth of health-driven drinking trends,” explains Dr. Ford. “This review suggests that appealing to NLM wines is influenced by social factors, habits, self-identity, emotional responses, and product specificity.”

However, her research revealed a significant contradiction. Women generally prefer no-alcoholic and low-alcoholic wines than men, but this study found that wine consumption leads to “strong symbolic connections to femininity” that can cause internal conflict. Men face their own challenges, as non-alcoholic drinks are often perceived as threatening a more feminine and potentially masculine identity.

This psychological tension helps explain why medium-intensive wines are successful in places where zero alcohol options are struggling. With 7% alcohol (the sweet spot where brands like McGuigan and Pepperjack place their products), these wines feel like “real” wines to the consumer’s brain.

46% Issues

One discovery that did not make a headline reveals a significant defect in current no-alcoholic wines. This perceptual problem creates a set of problems. If consumers do not associate the product with “wine”, they are less willing to pay the price of the wine or consume in the wine context.

Research shows that “the lower the alcohol content, the less likely the consumers will be to associate it with ‘wine’. “Mid-alcoholic wines can avoid this problem completely. By maintaining enough alcohol to maintain the properties of the wine, they avoid fruit juice straps while offering the benefits of moderation.

Social Scripting and Identity Management

This study reveals that drinking decisions are not really about taste, but about social signaling. The regular wine consumption project, “Facial and Sophistication,” allows consumers to display “affluence.” NLM wines face the challenge of competing against these deeply measured social meanings.

However, generational changes may be changing equations. Celebrity support from people like Sarah Jessica Parker, who launched 7% alcoholic wine, suggests that “Chicer Sobriety” could become the new social currency. This study found that younger consumers exhibited greater acceptance of low-alcohol products, potentially driven by a change in definition of health awareness and sophistication.

What’s particularly clear is that 73.61% of consumers consumed non-alcoholic beverages in environments where others drink alcohol. This suggests that NLM wine acts as a social camouflage, allowing people to participate in the drinking culture while making various personal choices.

Alternative science

Dr. Ford’s team applied the framework of behavioral psychology to understand why some people were switching, and others resisted. This study shows five important psychological factors that influence recruitment. Social influence, habit formation, individual identity, emotional response, product concreteness.

This study found that the wine business itself plays a “pivotal role” in shaping consumer perceptions. Retailers decide what is available, but marketers influence how products are placed. This creates opportunities for strategic intervention.

The key findings that emerged from the analysis are as follows:

• Consumers expect to pay less for NLM wine and consider alcohol removal as “less value”
• Price sensitivity is particularly high among younger consumers
• Marketing messages are currently focused on health benefits, but you may miss deeper social needs
• Despite the cultural significance of wine, intercultural studies are virtually nonexistent

Beyond buzzwords

The study highlighted a large gap that industry players need to address: terminology confusion. The study used a very different definition, with 8% of alcohol being called “low” while 7% of the products using “moderate”. Current market products cluster around 6.8-7% alcohol, but academic research has not kept up to these practical standards.

“The majority of the studies reviewed wines with low or reduced alcoholic wines, while few focus on no alcoholic wines, and rarely compares both NO and low alcoholic alcoholic products,” says Dr. Ford.

This defined confusion isn’t merely academic, but reflects the industry’s struggle to effectively place products. Without clear categories, consumers cannot develop consistent expectations and preferences.

Religious and cultural aspects

One aspect that is often overlooked in marketing discussions is religious acceptance. Research shows that 81% of Malaysian consumers perceive that they are thought to be Halal despite some of the products that are halal certified. This religious complexity adds another layer to the considerations of global markets that purely secular analysis has overlooked.

The cultural significance of wine varies dramatically across regions, but most studies come from only three countries: the UK, France and Australia. This Western bias could miss key insights into how NLM wines can succeed in emerging markets.

I’m looking forward to it

Dr. Ford suggests that future research should focus on “the application of behavioral theories such as emotional responses, cross-cultural influences, implicit decision-making, and cognitive dissonance and behavioral reasoning.”

This study shows that successful adoption of NLM wine requires coordinated efforts between consumers and industry. While the wine business needs to better understand the psychological factors that drive choices, consumers need products that offer both practical and emotional benefits.

Perhaps most importantly, this study suggests that medium-strength wines represent more than just a product category. These are potential bridges between traditional wine culture and emerging health awareness. Whether they can navigate the complex psychology of wine consumption may determine the future of the industry-wide relationship with alcohol.

As the global shift to moderation continues, winners are not necessarily products with the lowest alcohol content, and are products that have the best understanding of the human psychology behind every pour.

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