nate silver: “Having learned from their mistakes in 2016 and 2020, many polling organizations are weighting their samples based on how people say they voted in the previous election, a practice that has been relatively uncommon. Nate Cohn applies the method of new york times have great explainer I highly recommend reading more on this topic. ”
“The reason pollsters traditionally don’t like to do this is that they often misremember or misstate who people voted for, especially the previous winner, in this case Biden. because they are more likely to say they voted for it.
“The fact that Mr. Biden is so unpopular right now that people may be reluctant to say they voted for him, and the fact that many Republican voters mistakenly believe that Mr. Trump won. The situation is complicated by this.”
“But in theory, this could be one reason why polls underestimate Harris. If someone says they voted for Biden in 2020 when they actually voted for Trump. If you say incorrectly and then say you plan to vote for Trump in 2024, it will look like there was a shift toward Trump when in fact there was no shift toward Trump.”
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