India has announced the suspension of decades-old river sharing treaty with Pakistan following the attacks in Kashmir, which killed 26 people.
New Delhi has accused Pakistan of attacks on tourists in Pahargam on Tuesday. In fact, they have accused their neighbors of supporting terrorism across borders, especially in Kashmir, where armed rebellions against Indian rule have been raging since the late 1980s. Islamabad repeatedly denied the charges.
Following the attack, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Mithri announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, along with downgrading diplomatic relations and closing land boundaries.
This decision is important as the treaty survived a long period of war, border conflicts, and diplomatic freezes between rival neighbors. In fact, water is one of the few stable factors in a tense relationship. But it doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The treaty, mediated by the World Bank, divided six rivers in the Indus Basin between the two countries. Three western rivers – Indus, Jeram and Chenab rivers went to India to Pakistan and three eastern rivers, Rabbi, Beads and Satorej. India has allowed it to restrict the use of western rivers for non-consumption purposes, such as hydroelectric power generation, but has banned it from turning the tide in ways that could harm Pakistan’s access.
However, Delhi has now declared that it will cease to participate in the treaty “until Pakistan reliably repetitively, until it thwarts its support for cross-border terrorism.”
Why “Suspension” is controversial
The suspension treaty has no legal provisions and India’s announcement will be unprecedented. Experts say that India’s move may not lead to immediate disruption in river flows, but that could erode the predictability the trade has guaranteed, which could destabilize Pakistan’s already vulnerable water systems.
“There is no provision for a halt to the treaty, so we will enter a gray area,” said Himansh Takkal, coordinator of the South Asian Network on Dams, Rivers and People. Independence.
“If India stops participating in mechanisms such as data sharing and project reviews, it could still affect how downstream flows are managed.”
According to the treaty, India must allow 43 million acre feet of water to flow into Pakistan each year. This accounts for around 80% of Pakistan’s total surface water and is an important lifeline for agriculture, urban and hydroelectric power generation.
Pakistan’s concerns are rising
Pakistani officials strongly condemned the decision. Energy Minister Awais Legali described the halt as “a water war, a coronavirus, an illegal move.”
“Every drop is ours and we defend it all legally, politically and globally,” he said.
Environmental experts in Pakistani say the greater threat is not to block hydrologically and politically difficult water flows, but to slow degradation and loss of predictability in river systems.
Mohammad Abdullah de Or, a Dutch water scientist with Green Planet, said the moment could be an opportunity for renegotiation of a treaty that reflects 21st century reality.
“Everything changes over time. It was the 1960s. Looking at geography, science, technology and population, I hope that both countries can negotiate and renegotiate,” he said. Independence.
Deol pointed out that both countries use outdated irrigation techniques that waste huge amounts of water.
“We need to work on agriculture. Like I said, the changing world is all about to change, so we need to renegotiate,” he said. “So, at the end of the day, for peace and prosperity of both people, it is 13% of the population, and we should sit together, and we should use water for peace, not water.”
Deol also raised environmental concerns. For example, there may be damage to coastal ecosystems due to less freshwater reaching the Indus Delta. “Running water itself is a type of protection,” he said. “When the river reaches the sea, it carries sediments that maintain the coastline. Without it, the ocean rises and eats the land. And Pakistan has already lost its land to the sea.”
He said that some Pakistani policymakers believe the treaty failed to explain issues such as drainage discharge from India and cumulative ecological impacts in its current form.
An outdated treaty in climate change
Other local experts agree that the treaty no longer reflects today’s environmental and political landscape.
Ambika Vishwanath, founder of the Kubernain Initiative, said he did not anticipate the extreme climate patterns currently seen in South Asia, while the treaty was “technocrat and engineering-led.”
“The treaty didn’t take climate change into account because that science didn’t exist at the time. But the floods, melting glaciers and drought we’re seeing right now were by no means part of the design,” she said. “That’s why this suspension, even temporary, opens the window to revisit the treaty’s structure.”
Still, experts warn that India’s decision to leave treaty obligations can set precedents that will damage future transboundary water negotiations not only in South Asia but also worldwide. India itself is a lower river bank of other international river basins, such as Brahmaputra. There, they advocate the sanctity of flow sharing principles.
The Indus Water Treaty may not be perfect, but it is a rare example of enduring cooperation between two rival countries. The suspension shows a shift to uncertainty even without immediate results, and water is once again at the heart of the geopolitical risks in the region.
