Who will win?
I get asked that question a lot, and I often ask myself the same question. I’ve spent an embarrassing amount of time cross-tabulating polls.
I hate making predictions, mostly because I hate being wrong. But evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will return to the White House.
Before that, I would like to say thatthis video. This is a hilarious compilation of over-the-top “Trump can’t win!” 2016 predictions and his wins side by side. It’s also a stark warning to overconfident Republicans. “Don’t count your chickens yet.” I could have written a nearly identical column extolling Hillary’s virtues in 2016.
Having said that…
Polls currently support Trump
A fair look at the polls shows that if the election were held today, Mr. Trump would win.
Nationally, Harris leads Trump in RCP by just 0.9%.National opinion poll average. Compare that to eight years ago, when Clinton led Trump by 6.1 percentage points, or four years ago, when Biden led by 7.9 percentage points.
But the Electoral College is tilted in Trump’s favor. Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton by 2.1% and to Biden by 4.5%. Most forecasters now think Harris needs a national lead of at least 3 percentage points to win the election.
How is Trump doing in state polls? Although it is a razor loss, he is currentlyLeading in everythingTop 7 battleground states. Three of the leads are less than 1%, all within the margin of error, but Mr. Trump has gradually improved over Mr. Kamala over the last month. If he actually wins each of these states, he will win the electoral college by a margin of 312 to 226.
This is a big caveat.Should we trust these polls? He narrowly missed the mark in 2016, missed the mark even more in 2020, and the ball has been consistently low for Trump. They did recover somewhat in 2022, but we all remember the much-hyped “red wave” that fizzled out.
Pollsters say they made the changes in a desperate bid to restore their reputations. But is it really so? If that were the case, we would be in trouble. If they’re as wrong as Trump’s last two presidential elections…he’s on his way to an easy victory. Both scenarios are completely plausible.
RELATED: Singer Lizzo inadvertently admits the entire country will become Detroit if Kamala Harris wins
Other tea leaves
election forecasterCurrently, they support President Trump, albeit by a narrow margin. He leads both Nate Silver’s election model and 538’s predictions.
“Blue Wall” Senate Campaign. What experts have called Kamala’s “blue wall” doesn’t seem to be that blue, with polls showing that the Democratic Party’s U.S. Senate race (three Democratic incumbents and one vacant seat) is all within two points. And it’s within the margin of error. More importantly, these same Democrats are mentioning Donald Trump by name in TV ads touting their willingness to work with Trump on popular issues. That’s a red flag for Democrats.
betting market. These are important to Trump, with basically 60% predicting Trump to win and 38% predicting Kamala. Still, these bettors are not geniuses and largely reflect public opinion. In 2016, these markets favored Hillary Clinton even though some polling places were already closed.
increase in registrations. Republicans have made serious inroads into voter registration in battleground states. Take Pennsylvania, the ground zero of this year’s electoral map. In 2020, Democrats had a 686,000 voter registration advantage. now? That has shrunk to 298,000, the smallest Democratic advantage in the 26 years of available data.
Does this signal a mass exodus to the Republican Party? Or will Democrats, who have long been Republican, finally become officially Republican? It’s hard to say for sure, but it’s certainly good news for Trump in a state he won by just 44,000 votes in 2016 and lost by 81,000 votes in 2020.
Finally early voting
In July II wrote aboutHe outlined “a lesson the Trump team will never forget” and the Republican’s ridiculous and stupid decision to block early voting. They turned it around this year and it’s paying off.
Although it’s still early days, more Republicans are requesting absentee ballots or showing up to vote early. In 2020, Democrats entered Election Day with a comfortable lead in battleground states. So far, that cushion hasn’t materialized.
Polls, predictions and pundits aside, one thing is clear: excluding Trump has been a losing bet so far. If nothing else, this year feels like 2016 all over again.
Syndicated with permission from Ken LaCorte
Ken LaCorte writes about censorship, media malpractice, uncomfortable questions, and honest insight for people who want to know how the world really works. Follow Ken on Substack
After President Trump’s triumphant return? appeared first on Political Insider.
