Elise Appel (Center Square)
In many battleground states, former President Donald Trump is in a better position this election cycle than he was at the same point in the 2020 election cycle, when he lost to Joe Biden.
In six of the seven swing states, Trump’s approval rating is higher than it was at this time four years ago. The 93 electoral votes depend on Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).
Biden won six of those states in 2020 (except North Carolina), giving him a 306-232 Electoral College vote total.
Project 538 polling information is included in the following state-by-state summaries.
Michigan
Michigan is a perfect example of this trend.
At this point in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by nearly 8 percentage points. This year, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Trump by just 1.8 percentage points, within the margin of error.
Harris has a higher approval rating than Biden in the June and July elections. Michigan is a state with a split of powers, with Democrats holding majorities in the gubernatorial election and both houses of the legislature.
Polls ahead of Election Day showed Biden leading Trump by 7.9 percentage points, but he went on to win by just 2.8 percentage points.
This year, Harris, who has a 5% lead over Biden, could be decisive.
Arizona
Arizona is seeing very similar trends to Michigan.
Biden led Trump by an average of 4.8 percentage points in 2020. Trump currently leads by about 1 percentage point in the state, but polls show him leading by about 6 percentage points over his 2020 average.
Harris remains within the margin of error, usually around 3% to 4% in most polls.
Biden was leading in the polls by 2.6 percentage points going into Election Day, but ended up winning by just 11,000 votes, or 0.3 percentage points.
Georgia
In Georgia, Trump is ahead of Harris by just 0.4 percentage points, down from 1.4 percentage points for Biden four years ago.
In 2020, Biden began to lead Trump on October 1. On Election Day, he was leading Trump by 1.2%. The margin of victory was about 11,000 votes, a mere 0.2%.
This was one of only two times since 1980 that a Republican presidential candidate had lost in Georgia.
Nevada
Ms Harris leads Mr Trump by 0.5 percentage points in Nevada, 5 percentage points less than Mr Biden’s lead at the same time in the state, where Mr Trump has never led in the polls in the past three months.
This election season, Trump has led the polls multiple times since early August.
In the 2020 election, Biden led Trump by 5.3% on Election Day, but won by just 2.4%.
North Carolina
North Carolina is particularly interesting because it has been a focal point for both sides in recent weeks, with Democrats confident they can win the state for the first time since Barack Obama won it in 2008.
Trump has won the state twice, topping the polls in the state both four years ago and eight years ago.
In 2020, Biden led Trump by 1.8 percentage points going into Election Day, but lost by 1.3 percentage points. The Democratic nominee never trailed in the final months of the election, leading by 1.2 percentage points during that same period.
Trump has led all four polls from last week since his debate with Harris, with a consensus lead of just 0.3 percentage points.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Harris’ support is 3 percentage points lower than Biden’s at this point in 2020. Harris leads Trump by 1.4 percentage points, while Biden leads by 4.8 percentage points.
On Election Day, Biden led Trump by about 5 percentage points and won by 1.2 percentage points.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, Trump significantly reduced Harris’ recent lead.
At this point in 2020, Biden was leading by 6.7 percentage points, but ultimately beat Trump by 8.4 percentage points on Election Day, with Biden winning by just 0.8 percentage points.
This time, Harris is leading by just 1.6 percentage points, well within the margin of error, and Trump has been gradually reducing his lead over her since August.
Distributed with permission From Centre Square.
