Trump-Harris election puts Taiwan under pressure to strengthen defense

Taiwan is under increasing pressure to bolster its defense and deterrence capabilities against China as it faces uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential elections scheduled for November, security and policy analysts say.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Ka-long said, He told reporters last month The self-governing island must rely on its own resources for defense and is likely to continue spending and modernizing its military in the face of threats from China, which considers the island its territory.

His remarks were a response to presidential candidate Donald Trump suggesting Taiwan should pay Washington for military protection, after saying Taiwan had “given us nothing” and taken “100 percent” of our semiconductor business.

Experts said Trump’s comments highlighted the unpredictability facing Taiwan, especially after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, who has relatively little foreign policy experience.

Biden has been “more consistent in his policy towards Taiwan,” while Trump has proven to be “erratic and unpredictable” since the start of his first term, said Steven Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University in Tokyo.

This is mainly due to the difference in strategies between the two leaders: Biden has repeatedly said the US will defend Taiwan, while Trump has chosen “strategic ambiguity,” Nagy added.

Just days after taking office, Trump was the first in decades to Direct contact with the President of Taiwan.

Soon after, he said the U.S. Change one’s long-standing position They claimed that Taiwan was part of “One China.” However, It has reportedly retracted that position. In February 2016, he spoke by telephone with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

In any case, Mr. Trump’s tough stance on China has led many in Taiwan to believe he will be very supportive of the island, according to Weng Lu-chung, a professor of political science at Sam Houston State University.

As in 2016, the candidate is campaigning on a tough policy platform toward China and has already proposed significantly escalating the trade war with Beijing.

A tougher stance by Trump 2.0 to contain China would be welcomed by Taiwan’s ruling party and other Indo-Pacific partners, said Muhammad Faisal, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

But they added that they were concerned that Trump’s “myopic and transactional approach” to diplomatic and defense relations, epitomized by his remarks about Taiwan paying for U.S. defense costs, could put them back on his geopolitical dartboard.

Meanwhile, experts who spoke to CNBC acknowledged that a second Trump administration would likely be dominated by hardliners on China who would make defending Taiwan a top priority, but it remains unclear to what extent they would be able to steer policy.

“People who say they’re sure where they are [the administration] “They’re losing their minds. The level of unpredictability is going to be higher than it’s ever been,” said Richard Heydarian, a policy adviser and senior lecturer in international affairs at the University of the Philippines.

On the other side of the aisle is Harris, who is the near-certain Democratic nominee after succumbing to pressure from Biden to drop out of the race due to concerns about her age.

Analysts say she is expected to maintain some consistency with Biden’s policies and foreign policy.

“I see [Harris] “If you look more broadly at foreign policy trends over the past few decades, this is a sign of continuity,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, said in an interview with CNBC.Last month, we held the “Worldwide Exchange.”

DeWadric McNeill, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, said while it’s unclear exactly how Harris would differ from Biden, Beijing would be closely watching her first 100 days if she wins.

As vice president, Harris Expressing support for Taiwan and Met with the island’s new leaderLai Ching-te will take office as president in 2022. But she will take office with significantly less foreign policy experience than President Biden.

“I expect some continuity. [with Biden] “In China policy, it is essential to recognize the powerful influence individuals have in shaping, developing and implementing policy,” McNeil said.

“Vice President Harris is not Joe Biden, so her approach to national affairs will be different,” he added.

Both candidates pose uncertainties for Taiwan, putting it under greater pressure to accelerate efforts to build its own deterrent, policy experts said.

These efforts have already been gaining momentum since Lai’s election in January, and the U.S. election will only add more urgency, according to Ava Shen, who covers Taiwan and China foreign policy and domestic politics at Eurasia Group.

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party lawmaker, Lai, said in Beijing Trump has been criticized as a separatist and is continuing his predecessor’s efforts to build ties with Washington amid growing military and political pressure from China.

In his inaugural address, Working with Democracy to Strengthen National DefenseAround the same time, One-year extension of military service obligation The anti-discrimination law against men has come into force, an initiative announced by former President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has been increasing its defense spending in its annual budget, reaching 2.6 percent of GDP this year, with a further increase proposed for 2025, local reports said.

To strengthen defense capabilities Securing more weapons As of February of this year, the country has several Equivalent to $19 billion According to the Cato Institute, roughly half of the American weapons already purchased are American-made.

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers met with Lai in May. Promising weapons and $2 billion aid package Because the Taiwanese military was on its way.

China’s most recent official defense budget was $224 billion, about 12 times that of Taiwan. A report from the Council on Foreign Relations.

“In general, there is a certain degree of anxiety and worry in the Taiwanese government and society,” said Huang Gui-bo, a professor of foreign affairs at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and secretary-general of the Taiwan-based Association for Foreign Relations.

He added that if Trump wins, Taiwan is expected to continue expanding its defense budget to at least 3% of GDP, similar to the level envisaged by the former president’s advisers. Reportedly We are considering contacting NATO member states.

Lu Chun, a professor at Sam Houston State University, said the US elections have certainly put pressure on Taiwan to step up its deterrence, but this is beneficial for Taiwan as it has to grapple with harsh realities.

“In terms of self-defense planning, Taiwan will continue its current efforts, but bridging the gap across the Taiwan Strait will not be easy,” he said.

—CNBC’s Zenith Wong contributed to this report.