analysis
President Donald Trump has vowed to end a Biden-era anti-inflation law that halts federal efforts to combat climate change and provides for unprecedented spending on clean energy. Market momentum and state and city commitments to renewable energy may be the only hope for progress on climate change in the United States.
The November 5th election was the worst outcome for climate change regulation. Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office and Republican control of the House and Senate would halt federal progress and roll back much of the Biden administration’s climate change efforts.
Such a comeback occurred after Trump won his first election in 2016, but the stakes are even higher this time around. President Trump has promised to halt spending under the Reducing Inflation Act of 2022, a landmark climate change law that significantly increases federal support for clean energy technology and electric vehicles. And the president-elect will withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accord, roll back key regulations aimed at reducing emissions from power plants, and enact a host of important rules aimed at curbing climate change and air and water pollution. He promised to withdraw.
But signs of light still remain. Rapid advances in clean energy technology and economics have created a momentum that can be slowed but cannot be stopped, and the cost of solar power has more than halved globally since 2016. States and cities still have ample capacity to reduce emissions and prepare for emissions reductions. Exacerbating physical effects of climate change. But the administration’s actions in a number of areas will put significant progress at risk.
renewable energy
A clean energy economy requires the construction of vast numbers of new wind and solar farms and associated power storage and transmission infrastructure. Such facilities will replace all old coal-fired power plants and most natural gas power plants, electrify vehicles, build heating systems, power energy-intensive industries, and meet demands for artificial intelligence and data centers. Required to provide additional power needed to meet the requirements. Cryptocurrency and other new loads. In 2022, Congress passed the Inflation Control Act (IRA), which provides hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies and tax breaks for clean energy. Combined with rapidly declining costs, IRAs are fueling a significant increase in new projects.
Red line: President Trump repeals Biden’s key climate policies. Blue line: Biden’s climate policies will remain in place. Gray line: current US climate goals. sauce: carbon briefs.
Yale University Environment 360
The IRA passed Congress without a single Republican vote, and President Trump has said he will ask Congress to repeal it. But most of the IRA’s clean energy funding goes to districts represented by Republicans, many of whom oppose a complete repeal. Therefore, while there is likely to be a cap on the multiplicity of tax credits, President Trump’s ability to eliminate the relevant portion of the IRA is questionable. But the Internal Revenue Service under the Trump administration could make it difficult to take advantage of the tax credits by issuing very restrictive interpretations of them or refusing to release necessary documents.
The fate of IRAs will be in question next year, when parts of the 2017 Trump tax cut bill are scheduled to expire. Trump will likely want to extend these tax cuts. Congress will look for ways to pay for this. Reducing IRA subsidies may be part of that.
Another expected target of Mr. Trump is fees imposed by the IRA for methane leaks from oil and gas production. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and this fee is the first nationwide carbon tax in the United States. The industry is calling for its repeal, and President Trump is clearly sympathetic.
Wind and solar energy projects located on federal lands or waters (including all offshore wind generation) require federal approval. President Trump has frequently expressed hostility to wind power, and federal approval of new wind energy projects is likely to stall. Wind and solar power projects on private or federal lands typically do not require federal approval.
car
A key area in which the new Trump administration is expected to cut environmental regulations is automobiles, which are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, and where federal agencies set vehicle emissions and fuel economy standards. There is. Both of these standards have been tightened under Presidents Obama and Biden (with a suspension by President Trump in between), and cars have become progressively cleaner. Regulations adopted later in the Biden administration were even stronger.
Federal law allows California to set its own stricter standards if the EPA grants a waiver, which could be adopted by other states. States that have traditionally followed California’s standards are approximately 40 percent Top of the passenger car market. California has adopted rules to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles and require all new vehicles starting with the 2035 model year to be zero-emissions vehicles, and the EPA granted the necessary exemptions. Eight states have adopted plans to require all new cars to be zero-emissions by 2035, but that depends on California’s exemption. Without it, state laws that conflict with federal standards prevail.
Both the stronger fuel economy standards and California’s exemption are being challenged in court. President Trump is likely to direct the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to freeze or loosen standards and revoke California’s exemptions, as he did during his first term. These actions will also likely be challenged in court.
Of course, automakers are free to make as many electric cars as they want, and are already modifying them to increase production. But whether they will be forced to do so depends on the outcome of these trials. And importantly, subsidies for electric vehicles under the Inflation Control Act are also at risk, as President Trump has said he will consider. finish them off.
coal fired power plant
No one is building new coal-fired power plants in the U.S. anymore, but there are about 225. still in operationand they are now second largest source It is a major emitter of unhealthy air pollutants such as fine particles as well as greenhouse gases. Democratic administrations have been trying to speed up the cleanup and closure for decades, but the courts have frequently posed obstacles. In 2024, the EPA issued new rules mandating the eventual closure of these power plants unless they implement very expensive carbon capture and sequestration. This too is being challenged in court and is very likely to be overturned by President Trump.
fossil fuel
President Trump’s slogan is “Drill Baby Drill.” He also promised to cut energy prices in half, primarily by significantly increasing oil and gas production. But current production levels under President Biden are the highest in U.S. history and higher than any other country in the world. This is primarily due to hydraulic fracturing, which is the largest source of primary energy in the United States (47% in 2023). However, hydraulic fracturing becomes economical only when oil and natural gas prices are high enough. A sharp fall in prices will reduce production. President Trump will likely open more federal lands and waters to oil and gas drilling, including the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and ease environmental regulations on them. However, it is questionable whether this will dramatically increase production.
A pro-drilling sign at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 2024.
Nam Y. Ho/AP Photo
Biden announced last January that he would suspend approvals for new liquefied natural gas export terminals. President Trump will seek to end these moratoriums and expedite approvals for these terminals and related pipelines.
international agreement
Under the Obama administration, the United States joined the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump withdrew. Biden rejoined. And Trump will undoubtedly retreat again. The president could go further and remove the United States from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which the Senate ratified in 1992 and is the basis of the Paris Agreement. Any of these would deny the United States a seat at the global climate negotiating table and cede climate leadership to China.
For more than 30 years, developing countries have demanding “Loss and Damage” – compensation for injuries sustained as a result of climate change. The United States has long been a target of such demands. With Trump in the White House and a Republican Congress, there appears to be no hope that the United States will provide funding for this purpose.
State and local actions
States cannot impose their own standards on cars without federal approval, but in most other ways states are free to set stronger environmental standards than Washington. States can also adopt energy efficiency standards for appliances that are not subject to federal standards.
States and cities can use their procurement power to require lower-emission production of the cement, steel, and other goods they buy, and to require cleaner cars and appliances. All of these are purchased in large quantities, which impacts the manufacturer.
Blue states and cities are expected to work with environmental groups to vigorously litigate President Trump’s actions on climate change, just as they did during his first term. Certainly, the next four years will be eventful, and lawyers on both sides will be extremely busy.
