The Uncertain Future of the Green New Deal

Three small words have been appearing since the first day of President Donald Trump’s second term.

In one of his first executive orders, the president directed the agency To end the so-called “Green New Deal” He explained “Absurd” and “Incredibly useless.” The administration’s neglect to the concept is clear, and Trump and reporter Caroline Leavitt call it “.Green’s new scam. ”

The reality is that despite previous attempts to pass one in Congress, there is no Green New Deal Act in the United States today. Trump actually suspended funds in executive orders include the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the spending bill passed under former President Joe Biden, and the biggest investment in clean energy in US history. It was.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was announced as a major victory for climate organizers, but most of them lived to their original vision of a transition to renewable energy, where lawful and well-paid jobs. I don’t think that it is. Faced with the rollback, these activists have questioned whether the Green New Deal call was effective or whether it split voters. After Trump won the popularity poll in November, some climate advocates are looking for new ways to talk about the changes they want to see.

“This is a live discussion issue,” said Deja Powell, Membership Director for the Sunrise Movement. She said some organizers are worried that the climate movement has failed to move the public.[w]e actually lacks a completely compelling vision that touches the undercurrents of where we are in society. ”

If we had to identify the moment when the Green New Deal exploded into national consciousness, it would be soon after mid-2018. . The newly elected representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined the protesters who urged House Democratic leader Pelosi to take harsh climate change actions. They’re ready The resolution of what they called the “Green New Deal”. “This is a reference to the New Deal of the 1930s, and the civil protection forces, social security laws, and profession progress administration, launched by President Franklin D. Roosevelt to provide economic relief during the Great Depression. , an ambitious initiative and reform series.

In February 2019, Sen. Ed Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, joined Ocasio-Cortez introduced Green New Deal resolutions in both the House and Senate. The plan involves a massive mobilization that has not been seen since World War II to completely transform the economy, eliminate US greenhouse gas emissions, and create jobs for millions. I was asked. People were laughing at the idea at the time, Markey said last month in a mass organization hosted by more than 50 climate organizations. This measure was largely symbolic. These were non-binding solutions. In other words, even if you pass a vote in Congress, it won’t become a law. In any case, the opponent has announced their disapproval. The resolution failed in Senate votes Just a few months later, my second attempt in 2021 didn’t go anywhere.

“But do you know what we knew?” Markey said. “We had built a movement that was trying to build momentum that would end up with the IRA passing.” Since the original resolution, Democrats have focused on issues from the more targeted green. New Deal bill has been introduced. health To urban infrastructure Public housing In Public schools. None of these bills came out of the committee.

Many believe in the enthusiasm created by the Green New Deal I encourage Biden to prioritize climate change During his presidency, even if it didn’t exactly arise what they wanted. The IRA is sometimes spoken as a mini-green new deal, but there is an important difference between the two. While both support emissions reductions, Congress’ Green New Deal resolution calls for large-scale mobilization efforts to reach net zero emissions in a decade and move to 100% renewable energy. I did. The IRA was not ambitious and only wanted to cut emissions by 40% by 2030.

There is a common basis between the two initiatives. Both framed the energy transition as an opportunity to create new jobs. And both put a unique focus on these beings good– Ideally, it’s a union job. But again, the Green New Deal was headed higher and wanted to create jobs for millions of these, but the IRA was predicted to support it. Approximately 1 million Worked for over 10 years. (Recent estimates show that IRAs have been discovered Created fewer than 350,000 jobs In the first two years. ) Rather than imagining serious economic changes, the IRA focused on incentives Decarbonization Through tax credits for cleanliness and renewable energy projects. They also provided subsidies to households who installed heart pumps and solar panels to purchase electric vehicles. This targeted approach also missed out on several larger choice goals of the Green New Deal, including ensuring access to clean air, water and healthy foods for everyone.

Even after the IRA, some lawmakers have not given up on the green New Deal, even if they don’t go anywhere under Trump. Last month, in a call with climate organizers, Illinois Democrat Delia Ramirez said she was planning. Reintroducing the Green New Deal version It focuses on public housing. “Now I’m not naive,” she told attendees. “You and I know that bills like this will not pass through this Congress,” Ramirez said in a statement that those requests will become law in four years, assuming Democrats will regain control of Congress. I’m hoping.

Grace Adcox, Senior Climate Strategist at Progressive Think Tank Data for progresssaid the Green New Deal is still a strong motivation for those who are part of the climate movement. Organization’s Latest researchSince last January, 65% of voters have expressed support for the Green New Deal, which creates jobs, modernizes infrastructure and protects vulnerable communities. “I don’t think there’s a debate about leaving it completely,” Adcox said, but the phrases aren’t very effective for those who hear “being thrown negatively.”

According to Josh Fried, Senior Vice President of Climate and Energy in the Third Way of the Center’s left think tank, the Green New Deal catchphrase was not designed to build a wide consensus on the left.

“The proposals in the Green New Deal never coincide with the value of a place close to the majority of Americans,” he said. “Republicans continue to nurture voters as props to scare voters because they are not popular with voters,” Fried argued by several policy organisations. Accepted as part of the platformlike Prohibition of new fossil fuel projects or Decide a climate emergencydefeating voters who are trying to win after losing both Congressional homes and the White House in November last year.

Freed admitted that he thinks the idea of ​​paying a salary and dealing with climate change is abstractly good. “Who hates puppies and candies?” I wrote about a recent blog post. However, he said that when he was a voter, the Green New Deal would become less popular. Learn about costs. For years, Fox News has been holding a price tag for the Green New Deal. Analysis that it costs more than $90 trillion. (there was There’s a lot of debate about that number. ) Of course, the price of inaction is also increasing. The federal government calculated that if it fails to address climate change, it could cost it. $2 trillion per year by 2100 And it will reduce US gross domestic product by up to 10%.

Before the 2024 election, The economy ranked the highest Among the issues surrounding voters, according to Gallup Polling. Meanwhile, climate change was at the bottom of the list of 22 issues. This difference in priorities is something that climate movements are still learning to incorporate into its story points.

“Increasingly, we’ve been leaning towards framing this climate as a story about the economy,” Adcox said. It points out that even if climate change fails, household insurance and groceries prices will rise. The story of global warming is “a story about costs, the story that people face every day.”

In the movement of the sunrise Over 100 local chapters and groups All over the country, Powell said he is wondering how members will evolve the organization’s message and potentially expand their demands. The idea of ​​”green reconstruction” has emerged as a way to link the climate crisis to other social and economic injustices, Powell says, like a threat to American democracy and rising costs of living. The name implies two periods in American history. It was the reconstruction that took place after the American civil war and the second reconstruction that was sometimes given to the civil rights movement of the 1960s and 1970s. Both were times of deep social and political upheaval when demand for racial justice was met with violence and repulsion. Under this framework, climate groups can push for “restructuring the entire economy of all sectors to deal with the climate crisis,” Powell said. But not everyone is sure. “For some people, it’s difficult to put on a banner.”

Despite efforts by climate activists to raise enthusiasm for a greener, more equitable economy, Trump is consistently restrictive in climate policy and is designed to take something away from voters. These types of talk points are effective ways to stimulate voter fear, according to John Marshall, CEO of Potes Energy Coalition, a nonpartisan marketing company focusing on climate action. Trump now says he killed the Green New Deal – read, Ira – Americans say “Buy the car they want to buy.“This framing has led him to simultaneously attack both the actual bill buildings signed to the law, attacking both the future climate solutions that Progressive presents.

Marshall said there is an approach that emphasizes the polls of slow and progressive change than those seeking full conversion overnight. Whether that’s useful advice to organizers is another matter. Daniel Aldana Cohen, who co-authored the book The Planet to Win: Why Green New Deals NeedProgressive argued that it needed to be clear about the scale of the climate crisis and that it was not well received by conservatives and others who wanted to downplay its impact. And he believes that linking climate equity to large-scale public investment remains the right move. “You can’t fundamentally change the economy in secret,” he said.

Cohen said he doesn’t know exactly what the best message is. However, he said that progressives should continue to insist that they can “literally touch it” because of climate policy. According to Cohen, climate movements have opportunities. Now they demand “quality of life for everyone, not just green jobs, green careers, or some careers.”