ClimateWire | According to a pair of analysis released Tuesday, if President Donald Trump succeeds in abolition of environmental regulations and cutting green subsidies, the US energy transition will slow down, but not stop completely.
Annual energy outlook from the US Energy Information Agency and Bloomberniff offers a window into the country’s potential energy future after Trump. Both projects raise renewable energy generation, even in scenarios where Trump’s deregulation agenda is successful. Both forecast an increase in electricity demand by 2050, but the EIA outlook finds that overall US energy demand will decline as households and vehicles use fossil fuels.
Coal production, oil production and gasoline consumption are predicted to be better under EIA forecasts in a scenario where Trump has repeatedly regulated and successfully regulated. The agency – the independently operated DataCrunch branch of the Department of Energy – is projecting a major surge in electricity prices over the coming decades.
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DOE on Tuesday blows up its own agency’s findings.
“Today’s EIA report reflects the dire path to America’s energy production under the Biden administration, a path firmly rejected by the American people last November.” “By unleashing affordable, reliable, and safe energy, this administration ensures that America’s future is marked not by rarity, but by energy growth and abundance.”
The EIA outlook is the first since 2023. The agency paused its report last year to update its model.
In the EIA reference case, US electricity demand is expected to increase by approximately 50% by 2050. That forecast holds widespread expectations for a big jump in electricity demand as artificial intelligence and data center projects surge. It also follows an increased electrification in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act, the 2022 Climate Act, which provided billions of dollars in tax credits and grants to new clean energy systems.
“It’s clear that electricity demand is rising and more end-use demand is being met with electricity, many of which were encouraged by the Inflation Reduction Act,” Joseph DeCaloris, former President Joe Biden’s EIA administrator, told Politico’s E&E News in an interview.
Republican Congress leaders are looking to eliminate some of the IRA as part of their upcoming budget package. However, Matthias Kimmel, co-author of the BNEF Report, said policymakers need to tackle climate change and “invest further investment in clean energy to take advantage of the new opportunities surrounding energy supply and security.
“The rapid deployment of key investments and clean energy technologies across the market is essential to realizing change,” said Kimmel, BNEF’s head of energy economy. The research firm covers the energy transition and is part of a wider media empire owned by former New York City mayor and outspoken climate hawk Michael Bloomberg.
AI Boom
The rising power demand associated with data centers and artificial intelligence stands out in both the EIA and BNEF outlook.
The EIA forecasts that commercial electricity sales will increase by approximately 20% through 2035 as a result of data center growth. Bnef sees a similar trend. Data centers are expected to account for 8.6% of U.S. electricity demand in 2035, up from 3.5% last year, the consulting firm said.
The EIA outlook predicts modest growth in electricity demand than other recent analyses. December, a Reports from Grid Strategya well-known consulting firm has shown that it could increase by 3% per year in the second half of the decade. Wood Mackenzie too It was predicted in October Electricity demand in the US will increase by up to 15% by 2029.
The EIA forecasts an 8% increase by 2030.
The agency released some data on Tuesday, including its reference cases. This envisages the implementation of Biden-controlled emissions regulations for the power plants and the automobile sector. They also published forecasts that assume power plant and automotive sector regulations, called alternative power and transport forecasts, respectively.
The EIA predicts that by 2050, electricity prices will skyrocket by 2050, both references and alternative electricity incidents of over 20 cents per kilowatt-hour and alternative electricity incidents.
In all circumstances, the EIA said coal and natural gas consumption will decline in the US over the next decades. However, the pace of decline may depend in part on policy decisions.
Biden’s power plant regulations require coal facilities to be installed by 2032 to install carbon capture and sequestration. The EIA reference case shows that the result is a 53% decrease in 2032 and a 98% decrease in 2050.
The EIA foresees similar stories as oil.
EPA’s stricter vehicle emissions standards under Biden have seen a 44% decline in gasoline consumption by 2050, according to EIA’s forecast. If these standards were eliminated, gasoline consumption would still be reduced by 17%. Domestic oil production will decline by 15% by 2050 in the reference case, but will decline by 11% in scenarios where vehicle emission standards will be removed.
The reference case predicts that natural gas consumption will decrease from approximately 31/4 British Heat Units (BTUs) in 2024 to 27.4 quarter BTUs in 2050.
The EIA also forecasts a reduction in total energy usage in the US by 2050. This will be from around 94 Quadrillion BTUs in 2024 to 88 quarter BTUs of reference cases and 89 Quadrillion BTUs in an unregulated power plant alternative power scenario.
Renewable energy expands
In particular, the EIA is seeing a massive expansion of a renewable generation regardless of the fate of the EPA’s power plant rules. The renewable generation is expected to more than triple by 2050, and may be the country’s power source by the early 2030s.
These trendlines reflect the discoveries of BNEF. According to Outlook, the future of Clean Power Technologies in the US will be “bright” and “still” over the next decade. Solar capacity is expected to triple by 2035, but wind capacity is expected to double over the next decade.
However, the research firm has scaled its clean energy forecasts based on Trump’s agenda. The forecast for the base case for new wind power generation is 15% lower than the 2024 outlook. The company also lowered its forecasts for electric vehicles.
BNEF believes US emissions will fall by 16% by 2035 compared to the 24% reduction projected last year in 2035.
Under Biden, the US produced more crude oil, natural gas and renewable energy in world history. The US has also dramatically increased its shipment of liquefied natural gas overseas.
Trump has pledged to increase fossil fuel production, but the industry is now facing new challenges.
The President collects tariffs on a wide range of goods, including steel and other materials needed for the energy system. Fossil fuel producers are worried that the recession will reduce demand for their products.
This story also appears EnergyWire.
Reprinted from E&E News With permission from Politico, LLC. Copyright 2025. E&E News provides essential news to energy and environmental experts.
