We haven’t seen space fragments hit planes yet, but if that happens, the outcome is almost certainly catastrophic. And new research shows that the risks posed on planes are increasing.
Researchers behind the research at the University of British Columbia in Canada looked at flight data around the world to model the distribution of airplanes and compared this to records of uncontrolled rocket body reentries.
The increased risk is also driven in part by the mass deployment of satellites like SpaceX’s Starlink.
More satellites and rockets are sent into orbit, and more planes are sent I’ll take you to the skyThe possibility of a hit is increasing, researchers found. There is technology that tracks some degree of debris in the falling space, but that remains a major concern.
“The highest density areas around major airports are affected by uncontrolled reentry, with a 0.8% chance of annually.” write Researcher of published papers.
“This rate will rise to 26% in larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as those found around major cities in the Northeastern US, Northern Europe, or the Asia-Pacific region.”
According to Aerospace Corporation, there was a possibility of a fatal plane collision with an object falling from space. Nearly 1/100,000 2021.
Furthermore, even the smallest mass of burning rockets and satellites can defeat planes, making it difficult to guarantee passenger safety. The estimate suggests Something as small as 1 gram can cause damage if it comes into contact with the windshield or engine of an aircraft.
As the likelihood of interference increases, the chances of part of the airspace being closed are also increased. This causes other sky stretches to become cluttered, causing planes to be delayed or cancelled.
“This situation creates a dilemma for national authorities, whether they close airspace or not, with safety and economic consequences.” write Researcher.
Charts of reentry paths for uncontrolled objects are often important to note. This means that a large area of ​​airspace needs to be shut down as a precaution. We’ve already seen this happen Long March 5B Rocket Body 2022.
There is a solution, the researchers said: This technology already exists, Less than 35% Currently, the launch uses it, leaving something safe for the aviation industry.
The effort continues to improve safety both inside and outside the atmosphere of the earth, but requires buy-in from government agencies and private companies. We should not take away disasters to force action.
“Over 2,300 rocket engines are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled way.” write Researcher. “Airspace authorities will face uncontrolled reentry challenges for decades to come.”
This study is published in Scientific Report.
