Kamala Harris leads President Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to an internal Republican poll by the Senate Leadership Fund.
Senate and presidential poll results Note:
Texas: Cruz +1 (48-47), Trump +5 (50-45)
Wisconsin: Baldwin +1 (46-45), Trump +1 (46-45)
Penn State: Casey +2 (48-46), Harris +1 (49-48)
Montana: Sheehy +4 (48-44), Trump +17 (57-40)
Arizona: Gallego +5 (47-42), TIE Pre (47-47)
Ohio State: Brown +6 (45-39), Trump +4 (47-43)
Nevada: Rosen +7 (43-36), TIE Pre (46/46)
Maryland: Albrooks +7 (48-41), Harris +29 (61-32)
Michigan: Slotkin +8 (46-38), Harris +3 (45-42)
Because internal Republican poll numbers are based on a rosy Republican turnout scenario, these numbers tell us that even if the Republican turnout model is good, only one of the three blue wall states Trump remains behind in two states.
If Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loses the election.
With the exception of Jon Tester of Montana, the Democratic incumbents in the Senate are more than in position. Republican voting memos make it clear that Republicans are counting on Trump to win in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania to carry Republican Senate candidates across the finish line. If President Trump loses these states, Republican Senate candidates will likely be in trouble as well.
Add in the fact that Republicans could lose Nebraska’s Senate seat to an independent, and it’s by no means a given that Republicans control the Senate. If Ted Cruz falters in Texas, Republicans’ dreams of taking control of the Senate if Harris wins the election will disappear.
If internal Republican polls show Harris leading in key battleground states, it would bode badly for the party and Trump in the weeks before Election Day.
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