A new study found that warming could damage the global economy much more than previously assumed.
Typically, experts are looking at the sacrifices of past extreme weather to understand how future droughts, heat waves, storms and floods will affect the global economy. Use that data to build them Model Showing that global warming will lead to trillions of dollars in losses over the next few decades.
But this method is actually too optimistic, says Australian scientists. Because it only sees the local effects of extreme weather. By rattling the supply chain, future storms and heat waves will also ripple across the global economy, giving them much higher costs than current models.
“Because these damages are not taken into consideration, previous economic models have falsely concluded that even severe climate change is not a major problem for the economy,” said Timothy Neal, the lead author of the University of New South Wales in Australia.
For new research, scientists revised three popular models to explain the global impact of extreme weather. For example, one model showed that warming would shrink the global economy by 11% by the end of this century if emissions were not checked. However, when the model was updated to account for the impact of warming on the supply chain, the losses increased to 40%.
Survey resultsIt is published in Environmental Survey Letterhighlighting that in an interconnected world, all countries are vulnerable to global warming. “There is an assumption that some colder countries like Russia and Canada will benefit from climate change,” Neil said.
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