Even before Kim Jong-un sent troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine, there were no signs that China, North Korea’s main backer, was unhappy with Kim Jong-un’s deepening ties with Russia. Ta.
In a letter last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping thanked Kim for the telegram congratulating him on the 75th anniversary of the founding of communist China, but omitted the traditional reference to North Korea as a “friendly neighbor.”
Kim doesn’t seem shy. Western allies revealed this week that North Korea had sent more than 12,000 troops disguised as Siberian ethnic minorities to fight on the front lines in Russia, a move that has become increasingly cozy with neighboring countries. Analysts say this will only heighten Beijing’s concerns about military ties.
“North Korea’s sending of troops is a dramatic step, and China will not like it one bit,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.
For China, this sharp escalation in the partnership (which has deepened since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but was previously limited to mostly munitions) is a major threat to China’s delicate balance of power on the Korean peninsula. may destabilize.
Closer ties between Russia and North Korea could prompt the United States, Japan and South Korea to strengthen their military alliance in East Asia, but Beijing already sees the move as aimed at reining in its growing power. There is.
The Chinese government wants to avoid at all costs a repeat of the early Cold War, when the Soviet Union, North Korea, and China formed the Northern Triangle and faced off against the Southern Triangle of South Korea, Japan, and the United States. said a Chinese scholar.
“China’s current situation is really difficult and a real dilemma,” said Zhu Feng, chairman of Nanjing University’s School of International Relations. “On the one hand, we don’t want a repeat of the Cold War in East Asia. On the other hand, the United States is trying to strengthen its solidarity with South Korea and Japan.”
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that the escalating cooperation between Russia and North Korea is “very concerning” and will “deteriorate the situation in Ukraine and affect the security of Japan’s surrounding region.”
China’s sense of wariness has been clear since April, when it dispatched one of its top officials, Zhao Leji, to Pyongyang. The two countries have not disclosed details of the talks, but analysts say Beijing is frustrated by the prospect of losing influence over North Korea, which it views as a key buffer state against the U.S.-backed South. said.
In June, Mr. Kim went further, agreeing to a strategic partnership with Mr. Putin that included provisions for mutual assistance in the event of an invasion of one of the signatories. This was a move of deep concern to China.
The following month, the Chinese ambassador to North Korea did not attend a ceremony in Pyongyang commemorating the end of the Korean War in July, even though the two countries celebrated the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year.
In response to a question about North Korea’s decision to send troops, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that Beijing was “not aware of the relevant situation.”
Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations professor, said China’s concerns include the North Korean military’s involvement in the war against Ukraine, which has made the Asian country, Beijing’s only military alliance partner, less likely to defend Kiev’s legitimacy. If they become a serious target, they may become involved in a conflict itself.
“China has a treaty obligation to defend North Korea,” Shen said. “If North Korea is attacked, China will send troops and [if necessary] “We will do everything possible to protect North Korea.”
Some defense analysts have expressed concern that North Korea’s contribution to Russia’s war effort means that North Korea has secured a mutual commitment from Russia to intervene in conflicts on the Korean Peninsula. This prospect will alarm the Chinese government.
But Lankov said such a possibility remains “extremely remote.”
“North Korea is doing this for money, military technology, and battlefield experience, not out of solidarity with Russia,” he said. “Russia has no intention of getting itself into trouble just out of gratitude for Kim Jong Un.”
China is also concerned that Russia will help North Korea improve its nuclear capabilities, which could accelerate a regional arms race, said Chen Qi of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. said. Last year, Kim visited Russia’s Vostochny Cosmodrome, the country’s most advanced space rocket launch site.
But Cheng was skeptical that Russia would prioritize its relationship with North Korea over its relationship with China, which it has relied on for economic and geopolitical support since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Some analysts have suggested that Beijing may be allowing North Korea to send weapons to Russia to relieve pressure on it to provide direct military aid itself.
Jae-Chu, director of the China Center at the Korea Institute for National Security Research, a think tank in Seoul, said that at a time when China was providing economic aid to its own country, “Russia was providing economic aid to North Korea on China’s behalf. The Chinese government may actually be secretly happy that we are here.” Domestic growth was lagging.
“China continues to take the lead because ultimately it controls both countries,” Lankov said, referring to North Korea’s dependence on aid from China. “If China wants to stop this nonsense, it can do so.”
Additional reporting from Tokyo by Leo Lewis
