Major charities accused the minister of trying to downplay the extent to which benefits cuts increase poverty, and argued that official predictions rely on “hand fragments” to underestimate the true impact.
According to an impact assessment released by the UK government along with the Prime Minister’s Spring Statement on Wednesday, 150,000 people, including 50,000 children, will be pushed into poverty as a result of welfare reform.
However, the Joseph Lowtary Foundation said this was an underestimation. Because the overall figures included a reduction in poverty due to cancellation of reforms planned by the previous conservative government.
The impact assessment states that “we are not moving forward with previous government changes” will benefit 370,000 people at an average annual average of £2,600. This was factored into an overall estimate of a net rise in relative poverty of 250,000.
JRF argued that the real impact would be high because these changes were never going on. Peter Matezic, the charity’s chief analyst, estimates that the relative increase in people in poverty will be at least 350,000.
The Department of Labor Pensions and the Treasury did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the claim.
The government also estimates that around 800,000 people will lose disability benefits, also known as Individual Independent Payments (PIPS), with individuals expected to lose an average of £4,500 per year by 2029-30.
The estimate is likely to cause further dissatisfaction among Labour lawmakers. Many are angry at the government’s raids on the state’s aid budget while cutting welfare and raising defense spending.
Last week, Liz Kendall, Executive Director of Jobs and Pensions, unveiled a package of drastic welfare reforms that includes tightening PIP eligibility and cutting the most incompetent profit margins by half.
However, her announcement did not include a government impact assessment that shows how many people will be affected by the measure.
These figures show that around 370,000 people currently receiving disability benefits will no longer receive them when they are reevaluated. He added that nearly half a million future claimants will also be out of their qualifying.
Meanwhile, 2.25 million people receiving incompetent benefits known as Universal Credit Health will be affected by the fee freeze and lose an average of £500 a year.
He added that three-quarters of future recipients of benefits will lose around £3,000 a year due to the government’s decision to cut profit eligibility in half for new claimants.
According to an analysis released Wednesday, about a fifth of families with disabilities lose benefits as a result of reforms, averaging £1,730 a year.
Relative poverty is defined as households with an income of less than 60% of the median.
Prime Minister Kiel hoped that the changes announced last week would generate around £5 billion in annual savings by the end of the forecast period, but the Budget Responsibility Bureau has refused to “scoring” many of the proposed changes, claiming that the government has not provided sufficient details about the policy proposal.
The conflict sparked political turmoil hours before the prime minister issued a spring statement.
Kendall was forced to find urgent additional cuts, including a freeze on incompetent profit margins, leading to increased anger from lawmakers who were relieved that welfare reform was purely a willingness to cut costs.
“It all looks like a hellish scene,” one person said, explaining how he prepared the statement. “That’s pretty confusing.”
“The final moments of robbing more funds from the welfare budget have shattered the illusion of a moral case of reduction,” said Labour MP Neil Duncan Jordan. “This policy promotes the social determinants of poverty that ultimately present additional pressure on the services the Prime Minister is seeking to cut.”
Treasury Secretary Darren Jones was further inflamed with backbench frustration Wednesday.
OBR Estimated on Wednesday The total package of welfare measures would save just £3.4 billion by 2029-30 after considering employment support and management of the welfare system, but it highlighted that estimates are very uncertain.
Fiscal Watchdog said the figure includes a total of £3 billion reductions on spending on incompetent profits. He said he deducted £1.6 billion, which was saved by previous conservative reforms that the current government abandoned.
It also includes a £4.1 billion reduction in disability benefits spending in England and Wales. On the other hand, more generous unemployment benefits will add £1.8 billion to spend by 2029-30 before a small additional cost as more people are expected to argue.
However, the OBR is not yet trying to assess whether changes in financial incentives and strengthened employment support will lead more people with illnesses and disabilities to work in the long run.
Although details on the policy plan to form the view were not yet sufficient, officials said “the ability to work in general is generally limited and may have been out of the labour market for some time.”
The government said the estimates of people who are forced into poverty do not take into account programs that will bring people to work, but it expects it will mitigate some of the financial losses.
