According to Stifel, there is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not seek reelection.
Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief Washington policy strategist, released a research report saying this week, when Congress returns from its July 4th recess, will be a “make-or-break week” for the presidential campaign.
“There’s a better than 60 percent chance that Biden will stay,” Gardner said Monday on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” “Biden loves proving the smart people in the Democratic Party wrong, so the more he hears from the elites telling him he should go, the more adamant he becomes.”
Gardner, who advises equity analysts on how White House policies will affect the areas they cover, believes Democrats urging Biden to back down face significant obstacles.
“They have no leverage. They can convince Biden to drop out of the race, but they can’t kick him out,” Gardner told clients on Monday. “It’s an illusion to think that at least half of Biden’s most ardent supporters will turn against him and not vote for the nomination.”
Concerns about the president’s age have been present throughout his presidency, but his poor performance in the June debates has changed the tone of the debate, and polling data and financial markets are beginning to reflect the shift in sentiment in favor of former President Donald Trump.
But Gardner argues that the outcome could still be favorable for Democrats if Biden continues to campaign.
“There is a certain percentage of voters who will never vote for Donald Trump, no matter what,” Gardner said.
