Extreme fever puts people’s mental health at risk, Australian research warns, linking rising temperatures to the growing burden of mental and behavioral disorders.
High temperatures already contribute to thousands of cases of poor mental health each year, this study is published in Natural climate change I’ll say it on Monday. This toll could increase dramatically by 2050 as the planet continues to warm.
“From mild distress to severe conditions like schizophrenia, rising temperatures make millions more difficult,” says Dr. Pembi, the lead author of a study at the University of Adelaide’s Faculty of Public Health.
This study estimates the sacrifices of high temperature mental health using Dalys, a metric that captures both disability-adjusted life, or life in both lost and sick years.
HEAT currently contributes to an annual loss of healthy life expectancy of more than 8,450 people in Australia, or an annual loss of approximately 1.8% of the country’s mental and behavioral disorder burden.
Researchers warn that this toll could increase by nearly 50% by 2050 as the climate continues to warm and the heat waves continue to grow.
Most of this burden is intense in extreme heat for people with poor mental health, rather than driving death. Young people aged 15 to 44 are particularly affected.
Mental and behavioral disorders, or MBD, include a wide range of diseases related to emotional regulation, thought and behavior, including anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and alcohol and substance use disorders.
The study shows that approximately 8.6 million Australians are expected to experience MBD at some point in their lives.
“Climate change will promote mental health challenges beyond what a growing population alone can cause,” says co-author Dr. Zingwen Liu.
“Youth who often face these issues early in life are especially at risk as the climate crisis worsens.”
This study reveals that the effects of extreme heat are not evenly distributed. Victoria and South Australia currently have the highest percentage of heat-related mental health effects, with up to 2.9% of total burden being associated with high temperatures.
But looking ahead, the Northern Territory is expected to be the most affected area by the middle of the century due to high climate temperatures, suggesting that by 2050 more than 4% of mental health burden could be fever-related.
This study model future forecasts under various climate and population growth scenarios.
Under the high emissions trajectory, the mental health burden from extreme heat could increase by 49% as the world continues to burn fossil fuels like coal and oil at current rates without adaptation. If population growth is taken into account, the increase could reach 141%.
However, the study predicts that effective adaptations such as better housing, early warning systems, access to cooling, and green spaces could significantly reduce the increase in burden. For example, in the same high emissions and population growth scenario, full adaptation could reduce the burden increase from 141% to 65% by 2050.
The findings add to the growing evidence that the climate crisis is not only a threat to physical health, but also a threat to mental health.
A 2022 study by Boston University School of Public Health scholars found that days with higher than normal temperatures during the US summer season are associated with increased emergency visits for mental health-related conditions.
This new study comes when Australia is already experiencing more frequent and intense heat waves. According to a 2024 climate report by CSIRO and the Weather Bureau, the country has been warmed by 1.5c since 1910, and in recent years we have seen record-breaking summer temperatures and long-punished heat events.
Globally, the past few years have been the hottest on record, with temperatures recorded above 1.5c in 2024, confirming global weather organizations.
Previous studies show that Australia is warming faster than the global average.
Despite these trends, the impact of mental health has not yet been fully explained in the national climate and health plan, researchers warn.
“These results highlight the important role of policymakers in the development of focused public health interventions in order to minimize the emergence of the mental health impact of climate change,” says Dr. Bi.
The authors seek national and local heat insurance action plans that include mental health as a priority. These include dedicated mental health support during heat waves, targeted interventions for vulnerable groups, and long-term investments in community resilience.
“Policymakers must follow a people-centric strategy to protect their mental health as temperatures rise,” says Dr. Bi. “This isn’t just about health, it’s about building a stronger, more resilient community for the future.”
