Whether or not immigration played a significant role in President Donald Trump’s victory this November, he and his fledgling administration undoubtedly read the election results as a mandate to carry out their policies. There is. Promise of mass deportation.
But talk is easier than action, and if implemented, the costs would be borne disproportionately by red states and regions.
half of all illegal immigrants People living in this country live in Florida, Texas and California, according to data compiled by the American Immigration Council. But while California will erect any legal hurdles and refuse to assist federal authorities in targeting illegal aliens, Texas and Florida may be willing participants.
In Florida, 5% of the population are illegal immigrantsor 1.1 million people. This does not include immigrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, or Haiti. Temporary protection statuswill be an obvious target for the Trump administration.
If all illegal immigrants were removed, Florida would be lose $1.8 billion Texas, meanwhile, stands to lose nearly $5 billion, but those same immigrants are largely ineligible for government benefits. That’s free money for the state.
Additionally, there are economic implications. Lay off millions of low-wage workers and the cost of everything from agriculture to construction to hospitality and other industries suddenly and dramatically increases. Florida’s 2023 anti-immigrant law cracking down on businesses that hire illegal workers could ultimately hurt the state Over $12 billion annually. Crops are rotting in the fields because farms lack labor for harvesting. Roofing companies are so busy after hurricane season that they don’t have enough workers to repair homes.
And what happens when demand exceeds supply? If President Trump’s flagship policies (deportations and tariffs) are both inflationary, he will have a hard time following through on his promise to lower prices. Probably.
For industries like agriculture and construction, the costs of mass deportation are so high and obvious that it is absolutely shocking that they would vote Republican in the same way. Nationally, 64% of rural voters— heavily dependent on agriculture — voted for Trump.
The numbers are even more striking in counties classified as “agriculture dependent” by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Of the 444 counties dependent on agriculture; Trump won 433 of them. An average increase of 78%. What about outliers? These were primarily black-majority agricultural counties along the Mississippi River in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
So it’s kind of pathetic to look at the industry’s agricultural organizations right now. Beg President Trump to save workers from the very thing they voted for. (These are the same people) I was also surprised (On Tariffs and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)
There are also implications for elections. Illegal immigrants are counted in the national census These are included for reapportionment purposes and affect the Electoral College. Given that California and New York are expected; Lost 7-8 seats Large-scale changes in the undocumented population in states ranging from Texas to Florida will undoubtedly impact these projections. If these predictions come true, Democratic presidential candidates will need more than just battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (unlike now) to win the White House.
A combination of deportations, voluntary deportations (as migrants return home on their own), and migration from dangerous red states to sanctuary blue states can dramatically change the redistribution calculus. President Trump unfairly targets blue states for this very reason, even though the governors of Florida and Texas have aggressive anti-immigrant policies and are willing to extend help to the federal government. It will be interesting to see if it does.
Of course, President Trump’s biggest challenge is reality. How do we deport 12 million undocumented workers? The US Border Patrol Less than 20,000 agents As of 2022, there are just under 17,000 people actually patrolling the border.
Where would they get the manpower to raid Los Angeles, Houston, Omaha, and Peoria in significant numbers? some estimates Deportation costs run into hundreds of billions of dollars yearly.
Without state support, the federal government’s options are limited. “This plan will not succeed as long as there are sanctuary cities and states whose local and state police refuse to cooperate with ICE,” said Mark Morgan, President Trump’s former head of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. said state line.
That would be horribly expensive, raise prices for everyone, disproportionately affect rural America and red states economically, and actually lead to population growth in blue states ahead of the 2030 Census. What is the possible benefit of this problem?
It is very likely that President Trump’s mass deportation effort is nothing more than a typical Trump rant and a few high-profile raids. But if Texas and Florida push hard to help their states, repatriation to their home countries or internal migration to safer blue states is the only thing Republicans really care about. It is very likely that it will backfire in terms of the Republican Party’s ability. wield power.
