Some of that crude oil would go to other Asian buyers instead, perhaps India and Japan
The oil flow from the world’s largest producer to the largest importer is set thinly to zero as the trade war between the two great power economies escalates.
After recent mountain climbs, oil freight from the US to China has declined for much of 2025 thanks to a series of tariffs at a time when US President Donald Trump is already under pressure in the domestic refinery sector. Beijing’s retaliation only darkened the photos by increasing tariffs on US imports to 84% and increasing its Chinese duties to 125%.
The US trend is by no means essential to China. Data from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. shows that crude flows from the US to China will increase in the early months of this year, but the collapse of oil purchases shows a broader breakdown of trade relations between the two global economies.
“China imposes an 84% tariff on goods from the US, which means that US crude costs almost double. Based on a $61 WTI, $51 per barrel would be expensive.” “This makes us not crude for Chinese refiners.”
US crude oil imports into China are likely to fall to zero in the coming months if the current tariff levels remain,” he added.
Some of that crude oil will go to other Asian buyers instead. Recently, Indian refiners, like Japanese oil processors, have been purchasing cargo to take advantage of low prices, including performance from the US.
Meanwhile, China could increase its purchases of delicate crude oil, including Iran and Russia, but could close the gap with supply from Middle Eastern producers like Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
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Released on April 10, 2025
