Does Vice President Kamala Harris have a clear win in North Dakota, according to polls?
Oddly enough, an average of two polls conducted there over the past 45 days shows her doing better there than any Democratic presidential candidate since then. There is. barack obama in 2008 And before him was Bill Clinton in 1996.
Of course, “doing better” in North Dakota means she still beats Donald Trump by an average of 18.5 percentage points. But President Joe Biden lost peace garden state In 2020, Hillary Clinton lost by more than 33 points, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost by nearly 36 points. Still, sparse polling shows Harris with a near victory. cut in half Those margins.
Oddly enough, North Dakota is not alone. As of 10 a.m. ET on Friday, Harris’ poll lead exceeded Biden’s lead in the 2020 election in nine other states where polls have been closed since September 10. are.
So what exactly is going on?
One big caveat in advance. There aren’t that many polls about safe states. Since September 10, there have been an average of just 3.5 polls in 30 non-battleground states, and zero polls in 11 other states and Washington, D.C.
But of the 13 red states polled since September 10, Harris is trailing Biden’s lead in 2020 in only three. Still, just barely. They’re underperforming by less than two points in Montana, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, and losses in those states are almost certain.
What does this mean?
First, Biden’s outperformance in Nebraska bodes well for his victory in the state’s 2nd District, where he received one electoral vote. Could be a key factor in Harris’ victory. But we pretty much already knew that from the polls in the district. Leads President Trump by about 9 points.
More importantly, this data suggests that this year’s Electoral College results will more closely reflect the results of the popular vote. You know, democracy, or at least something close to it.
in 2016President Trump lost the popular vote with only 45.9%, but won an overwhelming 56.5% of the electoral votes. I had a similar problem 2020 But on the flip side, Biden received 51.3% of the popular vote and 56.9% of the electoral vote, while Trump received 46.8% of the popular vote and 43.1% of the electoral vote.
This electoral system is disadvantageous for Democrats, as it is the last time a Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (and his son George W. Bush in 2004). ). This is largely due to Democrats gaining large margins in the most populous states. new york and California–When Republicans won populous states like Texas and Florida, often win by single digit margin.
(Texas and Florida are excluded from the red state chart above because they were determined by: Less than 6 points Let’s flirt in 2020 swing state state. And because of that, there are far more polls being taken than solid-red states. )
But Democrats appear to be at a disadvantage in the Electoral College. contraction this year. Harris not only outperformed Biden in many sparsely populated red states, but also underperformed in many populous blue states.
Oddly enough, Harris underperformed Biden in 2020 in New York and California. good thing. She still has a commanding lead in each state, but her numbers there are likely to have less impact on national polls because the margins have narrowed.
The blue states and red states in which he trailed Biden in 2020 have a combined population of 125.4 million people, but the states in which he surpassed Biden in 2020 have a population of only 64.8 million. (Again, this only includes states where voting took place after September 10.)
For example, she leads Trump nationally by 1.7 points, according to . 538 votes average. But if she leads nationally in that amount; and If her polls in New York and California accurately reflected Mr. Biden’s 2020 results, it would mean that in states with smaller margins, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, for example. , would certainly mean Biden faces tougher odds. But she isn’t. polls show her running About flat and playing cards In those states.
In other words, it suggests that Harris needs a small number of popular vote wins to win in the Electoral College as well. And that’s a good thing for American democracy, if not for Harris.
For her to have a better chance than not winning the election, she needs to do the following: Win the popularity vote by 2-3 pointssaid election analyst Nate Silver. But in past elections, Democratic candidates fared far worse. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by a margin of 2.1 percentage points, but received only 227 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Although Harris still faces a stupid and undemocratic disadvantage in the electoral system, she seems better off than past Democrats.
