Tornadoes, wildfires, tropical cyclones and sea level rise are all on the list of dangers exacerbated by climate change. It is very important to answer questions about how serious these disasters are, how quickly and how often they occur, and which areas are most likely to cause harm. In response to this need, Colombian climate scientists at the National Center for Disaster Response (NCDP) have been reported. US Natural Disaster Climate Change Prediction Projectcan provide staff, relief organizations, city developers and families with the information they need to plan the worst.
The initiative brought together several public and academic researchers to develop a novel and interactive dataset to track and predict the occurrence of climate change at the county level, until the middle and end of the century. The project is built from Natural Disaster Index v2.0We are currently looking at 14 types of hazard types.
The team has identified significant risks to future climate change, including the escalating wildfire threat to San Diego and Yakima County, Washington. It points out that the risk is high now and the model is worse. Dakotas, which currently have a high wildfire rate, must prepare for an increase. Louisiana will see fewer wildfires in the future, but underlying data suggests that it could mean more flooding because it will result in more precipitation and potentially more precipitation.
These are just a few of the predictions modeled as part of the project.
“It shows what the risks of the baseline are and what the percentage changes at the mid-century and end of the century.” Jonathan ThreeNCDP Senior Staff Associates and Project Chief Researcher. “How bad does things get? For example, if you look at the raw numbers of wildfires, it’s not that much, but when interpreting the data, even if you go from 0.2% to 0.4%, you double the risk.
These new datasets consist of maps, graphs, and introductory stories that help users learn more about hazard profiles change under the effects of hazards, climate change, and additional information about the dataset itself.
The project identifies another prominent and surprising red flag. An increased risk of tornadoes on the East Coast.
“We knew the tornado trend was heading east, but now we can really show a big shift from the east tornado alley and an increase in the number of potential tornadoes. “Previous tornado datasets were considering historical data. The extreme thermal layer was examining trends over the past 40 years, which is examining how things are changing under different climatic conditions and different periods between the present and the future.”
“The challenges of climate change and disasters may seem overwhelming, but it’s also important to note that we have more knowledge than ever before,” he said. Jeffrey SchlegermilchNCDP Director, Columbia School of Climate and Professor of Climate Practice. “Working across the sector and attracting such partnerships allows us to provide empirically rigorous and instantly relevant data to non-academic stakeholders. This will help promote better decisions, better investments and better resilience in our community.”
Recognizing the risks and value of forecast data, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency has compiled tools to track how future climate change factors can enhance natural disasters. The Trump administration has put these plans on indefinite hold, but has removed many agency tracking websites.
“We are in an age where the dangers we face are increasingly affecting our community’s lives and livelihoods,” Schlegermilch said. “At the same time, we’re seeing the dataset being deleted.
A dataset policy that disappears can cause challenges. However, according to SURY, the new forecast maps aggregate existing datasets and incorporate the best available data at present, and will use the most advanced technological methods to create new research that over time, climate change will enhance and escalate the risks of four different hazards.
“With the very climate that reveals these dangers, we cannot rely solely on past experiences and historical data to guide our understanding of the risks.”
Traditionally, extreme event preparation science has relied on historical event data to predict and model future trends. This project shifts the paradigm.
“Because of the very climate that these risks are apparent, we cannot rely solely on past experiences and historical data to guide our understanding of risks. We cannot guide how to invest in reducing these risks,” Schlegermilch said.
New map and underlying DatasetReleased on April 21st, the third hazard data product based on the beta version of the Natural Hazards index, first released in 2016. This tool was developed to supplement. Preparation Wizardclickable resources for planning emergency home plans. In 2023, SURY and his team developed the US Natural Hazard Index V2.0 to update and visualize natural hazard data for 14 Hazard types in the US and Puerto Rico.
In this latest dataset, the researchers built on deep, existing research and analysis to track sea level rise trajectories and derive tropical cyclone data from a combination of existing, ongoing new research. Again, the forecast indicates the risk of escalation.
“Tropical cyclones are expected to cause significant damage in the United States and increase risks with climate change,” said Simona Meiler, a postdoctoral researcher in weather and climate risk science at Stanford University.
“The response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain and uncertain. Changes in closely related hurricanes can be geographically different,” he said. Cheer in LeeAssociate Professor at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Colombia. “We need to look at the changes in the local risks this map provides. This dataset assumes that storm frequencies will increase with global warming.”
“By making this data accessible, we aim to support climate scientists and risk modelers as well as urban planners, emergency managers and researchers in other fields, such as economics and human mobility. The goal is to make the risk of future tropical cyclones more visible and practical, especially in the most vulnerable regions.
Just as daunting as these predictions, researchers emphasize that knowledge is the best defense of society. The team positioned the research to make data open source and make it accessible to everyone and do the best thing.
“These are most useful to those who have long-term interests in the future,” Schlegermilch said. “For an individual, it may include seeing the kind of emergency you may face, an emergency that may affect the investment you make in your home, or seeing what risks you plan in your own personal preparation.”
“Investors will want to understand exposure to danger, even in physical assets and risky economies. This will help encourage resilience investments to offset these risks. Emergency managers and urban planners can use them to look at how risks change.
