A new election forecast from liberal polling analyst Nate Silver is full of good news for Trump that should terrify Democrats.
Silver has no incentive to publish favorable predictions for Trump, which would only earn him flak from the left, so you can tell they’re genuine.
There are still a few weeks left and things could change, but for now things are looking pretty good for Trump.
Breitbart News Report:
Nate Silver predicts Trump has a 61.5% chance of winning, while Harris has a 38.3% chance of winning.
Statistician Nate Silver released his latest projections for the 2024 presidential election on Friday, showing former President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 61.5% and Vice President Kamala Harris’s at 38.3%.
The 15.4% increase in Trump’s chances of winning is a reversal of Silver’s projections from Aug. 23, when Harris had a 53.5% chance of winning and Trump’s 46.1%. Those figures were coming out of the immediate aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, when the vice president was still enjoying his honeymoon with the mainstream media.
See the breakdown of the numbers below:
#latest Nate Silver 538 Prediction (Chance of winning)
August 23
Harris: 53.5%
Trump: 46.1%September 6
Trump: 61.5%
Harris: 38.3%
——
Battleground States: Chances of WinningPennsylvania – Trump 62-38%
Michigan – Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin – Trump 52-48%
Arizona – … pic.twitter.com/2JqxjoAr5O— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
Nate Silver has nothing to gain and everything to lose if his model fails. He’s not in this for the clicks or clout.
That should terrify Harris supporters. https://t.co/bDiftO9nik
— Bonchieredstate (@bonchieredstate) September 6, 2024
Silver made the comments on Twitter/X today.
One reason I’m less sympathetic to complaints about the convention excitement is that Harris’ approval ratings have actually been declining in most of the key battleground states in recent weeks.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2024
Additionally, according to Silver’s analysis, the Electoral College map (without close races) would look like this:
The latest notesup map from Nate Silver’s Electoral College model predicts a landslide victory for Trump…
Trump: 312
Harris: 226Silver Bulletin / September 6 pic.twitter.com/qOGujoK1gW
— @amuse (@amuse) September 7, 2024
Of course, Republicans and Trump supporters can’t take anything for granted, but this is a sign that things are heading in the right direction.
