Modeling the time series of scorpion stings in southwestern Iran

abstract

Scorpion stings pose a significant public health concern in Iran, causing approximately 45,000 to 50,000 infections and 19 deaths annually. Scorpions, belonging to the class Arachnida, are poisonous arthropods found on all continents except Antarctica. It is of particular concern in tropical and subtropical regions. Khuzestan and Hormozgan provinces have the highest reported incidence, with an estimated 36,000 infections each year. This study specifically focused on modeling time series data of scorpion stings in Shushtar city from 2017 to 2022. Our objective was to investigate seasonality and long-term trends in the incidence of scorpion stings by utilizing advanced analytical techniques such as autoregressive analysis. Integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A seasonal ARIMA model was applied to fit a univariate time series of scorpion sting incidence. This study revealed significant seasonal trends and overall increases and decreases in scorpion sting cases over the study period. The best model for the available data was a seasonal ARIMA model of the form ARIMA (0,0,1) (1,1,1)12. The model can predict the frequency of scorpion sting incidents in southwestern Iran over the next two years. As a result, time-series analysis provides valuable insight into patterns and trends in scorpion sting incidents, allowing for better planning and allocation of healthcare resources. By understanding seasonal variations, proactive measures can be taken to effectively deal with the growing problem of scorpion stings in Iran.