According to the survey This is a weekly column rounds out three of the most important voting trends or data points you need to know. In addition to updating the database on past daily KOS reports, there will also be a check of the atmosphere of trends driving politics.
Republicans’ proposed Medicaid cuts hit homes
Over the past week, House Republicans released their first major law, “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill” –Cap included– Which one do you do? Cuts more than $700 billion from Medicaid And it kicks millions of people out of health insurance.
In other words, Republicans behave like they don’t represent those registered with Medicaid. This is far from the truth.
One in five Americans who live in Republican-owned House districts are registered with Medicaid. KFF. In fact, 13 GOP Held districts have three Medicaid-registered districts, with over half of their citizens enrolled in the public insurance program in two districts.
64% of California’s 22nd District are registered with Medicaid. The district is represented by moderate Republican David Valadao I voted for the bang each President Donald Trump’s January 6th, 2021, triggered by the Capitol rebellion. He won reelection last year. 53.4% of votes to 46.6% of his democratic challengers. Still, with 495,200 of his constituents, including 176,600 children, registered with Medicaid, it would likely backfire if he voted to cut the program.
However, Kentucky’s District 5, where 54% are registered with Medicaid, is another story. It was represented by far-right Republican Hal Rogers, and last year the Democratic Party was There was no fight Trump won district 79% of votes. Such a margin gives Rogers, A man with a small personalitythere is no reason not to vote to risk health insurance for more than half of his constituents.
Still, Medicaid is a very popular program, with 88% of Democrats, 81% of independents and even 64% of Republicans in favor of them. KFF polls It will be held in January.
Once Republicans go through a Medicaid-filled budget bill, they give Democrats a simple, resonating line of attack ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. It is a terrible shame to come at the expense of those with low incomes and disabled people suffering.
Well, Dwemer
War, what is it good for? Something that seems to make you feel scary.
New YouGov polls for economists find it 44% of American adult citizens believe it is likely World War I More than five years ago. Currently, only 13% say there are fewer World War I, but 30% say they are almost the same.
Worse, 36% of Americans say a Nuclear The war is more likely today than it was five years ago, but it says it has a similar share (34%). Still, only 14% say it’s low now.
That sounds terrible – very bad, but the truth is that fear of nuclear war seems to be tapering or at least plateauing.
Daily KOS followed 17 polls YouGov asked about the current potential of nuclear war compared to five years ago. The first investigation entered the scene on February 24, 2022, just two days after the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Opinion survey 48% of Americans found that they believe that a nuclear war is more likely than it was five years ago.
in Opinion survey The following week, the number surged to 59%, likely due to media coverage of the Russian invasion.
However, so far, 59% has peaked, with that figure steadily falling by September 2022 from the mid-40s to the 40s. Talk about the new Iranian nuclear deal Like the ongoing war in Ukraine. However, in January it fell again to 42%.
And now it’s falling to another 36%. but why?
Many Americans who saw the major threats between 2022 and 2023 may have since settled down in some sort of middle ground. In the latest polls, 34% of Americans say the possibility of a nuclear war is “almost the same” as five years ago. This is the highest “almost the same” number in 17 polls. This could mean that the increase in threats that Americans felt at the time has since stabilized.
It is also possible that the increasing fear of Americans about nuclear war was linked to media coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After all, Russia is It is estimated to have the largest stockpile in the world With 5,580 nuclear warheads, and only the US is approaching with 5,22 unique ones. If a nuclear war was launched, one or both of those countries would likely be involved in some capacity. However, as the war in Ukraine disappeared from the front pages, nuclear fears among Americans became stable or diminished.
Another reason for the change in American attitudes may be partisan. In all polls conducted while Joe Biden was president, an average of 46% of Democrats said the current nuclear war potential was more than five years ago, roughly the same as the share of the latest polls (45%). But across Biden’s presidency, the average share of Republicans who felt the same way was 57%, not below 48%. But the latest poll conducted over 100 days in Trump’s second administration says that only 28% of Republicans are likely to have a higher nuclear war than they were five years ago.
Hmm… what’s changed?
Freely dissatisfied
Newly released data from Gallup found that Americans are less comfortable than their peers in the world, but many of them are involved Free Americans woman feel.
The 72 Americans were pleased with the freedom to live their lives that they deem appropriate. However, this is below the global median (81%) and far below those living in a rich market-based economy (86%). However, in 2021, 81% of Americans were free to please.
So what happened? dobbs The decisions mainly occurred.
The percentage of American women who were free to satisfy themselves has declined from 81% in 2021 to 71% in 2022, continuing to reach 66% last year. That’s a 15-point decline since 2021, three times (5-point) of the decline seen by men between 2021 and 2024.
Gallup data links this decline and this gender gap with the Supreme Court decision Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Agencyexcluded the constitutional right to abortion. Why that link? Gallup’s 2022 survey was on the site. Politico reported On May 2, 2022, in the leak draft of that decision.
As the survey was completed in the days before Politico’s report, 80% of American women felt satisfied with their freedom in the US, but that number plunged to 68% in the days immediately following the report. On the other hand, the proportion of free-satisfied American men essentially did not change (75% before leakage, 77% after leakage).
Like great data science companies, Gallup hedges its findings, saying, “The polls don’t ask people who don’t feel satisfied with their freedom, why they’re happy with their freedom, but the timing of their decline compared to the biggest court decision of 2022 is dobbs It suggests that loss of constitutional protections for abortion may be a strong factor in Americans’ lower satisfaction with personal freedom.
“The decision coincided with a decline in women’s satisfaction with freedom.
Are there any updates?
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I have Trump I accepted the planned bribe From the Qatar government, in the form of a $400 million luxury jet owned by his presidential library after he left the White House, and, to his surprise, 52% of Americans say the gift will affect Trump’s actions as president. New yougov data. moreover, 47% Say that acceptance of his gift is “unacceptable.”
Vibrator check
As of Friday, 60% of registered voters believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases, while 37% believe it should be illegal in most cases. civiqs. However, among female voters, 66% support abortion in most/all cases, and only 31% believe it should be illegal in most/all cases.
Support for abortion rights is low among men. Multiple (35%) say abortions should be illegal in most cases, and another 9% should be illegal in all cases. Meanwhile, 29% say they should be legal in most cases, while 23% say they should be legal in all cases.
Campaign action
