The Earth may already be in an era of intensified global heating aimed at avoiding the Paris Agreement, two new studies examining record-breaking temperatures in 2024 have discovered.
Research published in Nature Climate changesuggests that last year’s unprecedented heat could mark the beginning of several years when average global temperatures are consistently above 1.5c levels before the industrial revolution.
In 2024, temperatures rose above 1.5°C for the 12th consecutive month.
This is because 1.5C is an important target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, and the level countries were trying to avoid it beyond to limit catastrophic climate impacts.
The first study from Germany suggests that the Earth is likely to have entered a 20-year period. There, it shows that global temperatures consistently exceed 1.5c average.
“Multiple datasets and approaches from different organizations converged to an average increase in 2024 of 1.55°C than the baseline before the Industrial Revolution,” the study states.
A second study led by Canadian researchers stated that for the 12th consecutive month in June 2024, the global average surface temperature has surpassed pre-industrial levels at least 1.5c.
The study shows that 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C means there is a 76% chance that it has reached its long-term warming threshold under current climate policy.
If this trend continues for 18 consecutive months, research shows that breach of the Paris Agreement threshold would be virtually certain. January 2025 was the 19th month that exceeded that mark.
Dr. Andrew King, a senior lecturer in climate science at the University of Melbourne, says he was not involved in either study. The study says that “the 1.5°C month and several years mark is likely to be a feature of longer periods the world has. Earths with climates above 1.5c average. “More than global warming.”
He warns that without rapid decarbonization, it will be difficult to prevent climate from crossing this threshold.
“Global greenhouse gas emissions remain at or near record levels, and global warming has even accelerated in recent years.
“We need to make a major change to decarbonize our society and our economy. Otherwise, we will continue to warm our planet, causing more and more damage.”
These studies are timely reminders of how far we are from dealing with climate change properly.
Dr. Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the University of Melbourne
However, Dr. Tom Mortlock, head of climate analysis, AON’s Asia-Pacific region and auxiliary fellow at UNSW’s Climate Change Research Center, added: This is not the same as violating the 1.5c Paris contract threshold. ”
He explains that the Paris Agreement’s goals refer to the 20-year average. That is, we don’t officially know if the threshold has been exceeded until a few years after it happened.
“Whether we have it [breached the Paris target] The fact that it is, or not, remains the fact that it is only about six years left in the global carbon budget at the current rate.
“If this new study is correct, 2024 may already be the first indication that it is overshooting this target.”
These warnings are confirmed by the World Weather Organization (WMO) that 2024 is the hottest year on record, with pre-industrial levels up about 1.55°C and 2024 is the hottest year on record Occurs after.
The effects of this global warming are already being felt worldwide. From deadly wildfires in California to catastrophic floods in Valencia, Nepal and Sudan, studies show that the climate crisis has exacerbated extreme weather.
Scientists say it’s time to make tough choices to prioritize climate.
“Prepare for the ‘1.5 World’,” says Dr. Paul Reed, director of Future Emergency Resilience Network (FERN).
“Now we will need to make serious changes to socioeconomic, energy and infrastructure systems that will “transcend politics as normal.”
“We can do it with resource wars and misery, or creativity and compassion. I like to think that most people will choose the latter, regardless of the taste of politics they like. ”
