India is preparing for that other summer’s long-term, fatal heat wave as it warns of normal temperatures and significantly more extreme heat in many parts of the country from April to June.
This year, states such as Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha can see heat waves for up to 11 days, India’s Weather Bureau (IMD) said. Heat wave days are defined as long periods of extremely hot weather.
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said in a press conference this week that there may be more heatwave days than the historic average in many parts of central, northern and eastern India, the chief of IMD said.
“From April to June, the plains of northern India and most parts of East India, as well as northwest India, are expected to experience heatwave days of two to four people than usual,” he added.
This warning follows what was an unusually warm start to the year. February is the hottest and recorded in the world, the hottest and recorded in India, putting wheat crops at risk, with many states reporting 1-3°C above normal 1-3°C.
Early season heatwaves had already been declared by the end of the month in parts of western and southern India, including Mumbai, Goa and Karnataka.
India usually sees heat waves from April to June, but rising global temperatures change this pattern, causing extreme heat to arrive earlier and last longer.
In 2024, India recorded the hottest day in Rajasthan at 50.5C, with more than 40,000 suspected heat stroke in the country. The Ministry of Health officially attributes 143 deaths to the heat wave, but independent researchers say the real sacrifice is likely to be much higher.
In February, authorities warned that unusually high March temperatures in March could harm wheat, chickpeas and rapeseed crops, which are sensitive to heat stress. India, the world’s second largest wheat producer, has already faced years of poor harvests, forced export bans and increased price fluctuations.
“We don’t intend to promote wheat in March,” an IMD official said earlier this year.
The energy sector is also nervous. Increased use of air conditioners in homes and businesses during the hot months led to a rapid surge in electricity demand. Experts warn that electricity consumption could skyrocket up to 10% this summer, and that it would put a blackout at risk.
A recent study from the University of California, Berkeley found that India could face a severe power shortage as early as next year, unless it updates energy efficiency standards for cooling equipment. Double the efficiency of air conditioners will save consumers $26 billion and prevent 60 GW of excess demand by 2035, the report says.
“ACS is becoming one of the biggest factors in peak demand, and without intervention it puts power outages or costly emergency corrections at risk,” says Nikit Abyankar, the lead author of the study.
Experts have long warned that global warming is intensifying India’s extreme thermal events. A recent analysis by Climate Central found that temperatures in Mumbai and Goa, which broke this year’s records, could be three to five times higher due to the climate crisis due to humans.
IMD Chief Mohapatra has previously warned that heat waves could become more frequent and more severe if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. “We are putting ourselves at risk as well as future generations,” he said last year.
Rising risk has led some states to deploy heat action plans and emergency protocols, including early warning systems, hydration centres and coordinated lessons. However, many experts say that India’s response remains fragmented and underprepared, especially as the extreme climate intensifies.
“Summer is expanding, winter is shrinking, and the cycle has changed,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of Skymet Weather Meteorology and Climate Change. “And what we’re seeing now is the impact that shift unfolds in real time.”
