After a decade of giving up financing for large hydroelectric dams, the World Bank is getting back into the business in a big way.
throughout the late 20’sth century, the bank was the world’s leading supporter of large-scale hydroelectric power. But over the past two decades, dam proponents and critics within the institution have followed a zigzag pattern as they take turns determining hydropower policy. Over the past decade, critics troubled by the huge social and environmental costs and long construction schedules of mega-dams seemed to have the upper hand, and banks supported them. only A new large-scale hydroelectric project.
But earlier this week, the bank’s board approved a plan to make it the lead investor in a $6.3 billion project to complete construction of Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam. The project, which began in 1976, has stalled frequently but is now about 30 percent complete.. Once fully constructed, it will be the world’s tallest dam at 1,100 feet tall and one of the world’s most expensive dams, with a total price tag of $11 billion.
“The World Bank is reconsidering projects it had previously canceled due to obvious risks, but those risks have not gone away.”
World Bank and Democratic Republic of Congo officials are also negotiating the terms of a deal that includes financing Inga 3, the third of eight dams planned in the megaproject known as Grand Inga. Amazing size, Grand Inga is $100 billion The project will become the world’s largest dam project, almost doubling its size. China’s Three Gorges Dam is currently the world’s largest hydroelectric dam and has the potential to power large parts of the African continent. It would also reconfigure the hydrology of the Congo River, the world’s second-strongest river, in a way that opponents consider harmful to the environment.
And last April, the bank “agreed in principle” to lead a consortium of international and local banks to finance the $1.1 billion dam.one of the largest parks in Nepal, located along the Arun River. The dam, called Upper Arun, is backed by an Indian company and its electricity is intended for export to India. But Nepal is already satisfied with hydropower; my republicaKathmandu newspaper, reported In recent years, large amounts of generated electricity have been wasted due to inadequate power transmission lines. The Upper Arun Dam is also being built in an area highly vulnerable to flooding caused by earthquakes and the failure of glacial lake ice dams.
The proposed Upper Arun Dam site on the Arun River in Nepal.
Upper Arun Hydroelectric Limited
The banks’ role in these projects marks a radical change in their approach to hydroelectric dams. “Rogun and Inga are the largest dams in the world, and their scale is unlike anything we’ve seen in decades,” said Josh Clem.Co-Executive Director of International Rivers, a river protection NGO based in Oakland, California. From 2014 to this year, the Bank supported only one new large-scale hydropower project, Nachtigal in Cameroon. But between this week and mid-2025, the bank’s board is likely to approve financing for five major dams, including Rogun Dam and Inga 3 Dam.
“We are witnessing a massive movement [by the World Bank] “We need to consider funding a range of large-scale projects that are expected to have significant impacts on river basins, or that have already caused major historical controversy,” said New York, coordinator of the International Union of Rivers Without Borders. said Eugene Simonov, a researcher at the University of South Wales. , in an interview in Canberra. “While the World Bank is reconsidering projects that were previously canceled due to clear challenges and risks, those risks have not gone away.”
In response to questions, World Bank officials said in a statement: “There are no policy changes regarding hydropower financing.” The statement continued: “Nonetheless, it is becoming increasingly clear that hydropower is a key factor in driving investment in clean energy,” adding that hydropower has the potential to supplement solar and wind energy. He said that there is a sex.
Supporters argue that dams can generate large amounts of renewable energy in a country where most people don’t have electricity.
The World Bank’s support for large-scale hydropower generation was prompted by the social and environmental controversies raised by dam-building efforts, and the World Bank’s support for large-scale hydropower was prompted by the World Bank’s 12 independent expert research body, the World Commission on Dams. ) has been held intermittently since the late 1990s, when it convened and made recommendations against large-scale hydropower generation. Proper planning, design, and construction procedures for large dams. However, the bank rejected the committee’s recommendations issued in 2000, finding them too restrictive. instead, policy “High risk, high return” that wholeheartedly embraces large hydropower. However, when the dam again caused controversy, the bank withdrew. The bank tried again to support large-scale hydropower projects in 2013, but then withdrew until 2018, when social and environmental standards for the projects were relaxed.
“The bank’s rediscovery of interest in large-scale hydropower comes as Ajay Banga, who has been the bank’s president since June 2023, has raised concerns about environmental and social issues that would have previously ruled out projects. “We think it reflects a desire to start the term off with a bang, even if it means ignoring the issue,” Clem said.
But experts say bankers appear to be downplaying the new importance of hydropower in their plans, making it difficult to build dams at a time when President-elect Donald Trump may be considering building them. They point out that they may not want to draw attention to their high costs. End U.S. support for banks. Project 2025, a compilation of controversial nationalist policies devised by advisers close to President Trump; say The new administration should “withdraw from both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and end funding to both institutions.” The United States is the largest contributor to the bank.
Inga 1 and Inga 2 hydroelectric dams on the Congo River in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A huge third dam, Inga 3, is planned nearby.
Mark Jourdier/AFP via Getty Images
Experts believe that no matter how many dams these projects complete, the involvement of banks will not change the status quo of the global dam construction industry. It’s trending downwards for a number of obvious reasons. These include the dam’s huge upfront cost and subsequent wait of more than a decade before power revenues start flowing. Destruction of fisheries and river ecosystems. Conservatively estimated displacement 80 million people It has caused damage all over the world, affecting the lives of an additional 500 million people. Massive emissions of methane from several reservoirs. When reservoirs empty due to drought (which is becoming increasingly common due to climate change), as is currently happening in southern Africa and elsewhere, energy production is significantly reduced. and at first glance coup d’etatwind and solar power generation equipment is becoming increasingly cheaper and less competitive.
Despite this, hydropower proponents argue that the technology can generate large amounts of renewable energy in countries where most people have no electricity at all. Dam industry players, who once promoted their projects as essential to national and regional economic development, are now touting the potential of hydropower to complement solar and wind power.
River protection NGOs such as International Rivers argue that the bank’s imprimatur gives the industry undue shine and encourages other local and international banks to support more dam projects. “We write this letter to express our collective alarm at the proposed World Bank support for large-scale hydropower development and the recent significant surge,” he wrote on October 23. Starts on page 9 letter Letter to bank leaders signed by over 100 environmental NGOs from around the world. The letter called on the bank to stop investing in virtually all hydropower projects. The bank responded quickly but cursorily, reaffirming its “partnership” with the NGO, but without addressing the main points of the letter.
Water stored in Rogun Dam no longer reaches farmers who depend on the dam downstream, advocates say.
Rogun and Grand Inga have been controversial for decades. Tajikistan is a competitive arena in Central Asia, where Western, Arab, Russian, and Chinese interests compete for political and economic influence.;One way Europe and the United States can increase their influence over Tajikistan’s leaders is by helping Tajikistan build the world’s tallest dam. The project is very popular in Tajikistan, and the country’s leaders are “obsessed” with the dam, according to Simonov, so supporting Rogun could be a particularly powerful tactic. One of Rogun’s liabilities is the displacement of 50,000 to 60,000 people, according to the World Bank. document. Simonov said engineering firms are proposing an alternative plan to build a dam that would be at least 115 feet lower and would displace up to 30,000 fewer people. Simonov said officials rejected these plans because they were primarily interested in the prestige they believed would come from building the world’s tallest dam.
Between 2033, when Rogun is scheduled to be completed, and 2039, when the reservoir is expected to be full, the dam will begin producing electricity, resulting in “significant national and regional impacts,” according to a review prepared for the bank’s board of directors. It has the potential to transform Tajikistan’s economy by generating significant amounts of electricity and providing benefits, contributing to the decarbonization of the Central Asian region’s electricity grid. ” Of more immediate concern to Tajiks, the dam’s output should eliminate power outages that disrupt heating during the country’s cold winters. The problem is that the water that powers the Rogun power plant’s turbines in the winter is pumped from the Vaksh River during the summer. That means water will no longer reach farmers and people who depend on the river downstream in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. , according to Simonov. Environmentalists say Rogun would also seriously threaten Tajikistan’s Tiglovaya Barka Nature Reserve, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, by permanently eliminating flooding, which is essential to maintaining floodplain forests. states. And by the time the dam is completed, other renewable power options are expected to emerge, according to an October 23 letter from NGOs to the World Bank. Much cheaper.
Yale University Environment 360
The World Bank’s assessment of Rogun classified the overall project risk as “high.” Among the risks listed in the report was the limited experience of Tajik officials.resulting in design and construction delays and “technical and dam safety issues.” The impact of the project on the national debt. Poor performance in Tajikistan’s power sector may limit electricity sales revenues. and that the project is located in an area with high seismic activity.
Like Rogun, Grand Inga in the Democratic Republic of Congo has a checkered history. Inga 1 and Inga 2 were built long ago in 1972 and 1982, respectively, but their poorly maintained dams provided electricity to only one in five Congolese people. The terms do not change the terms of the proposed Inga 3, which cost more than $14 billion. . Of the Inga 3’s massive output of up to 11,000; In the case of megawatts, 5,000 will be exported to South Africa (after construction of transmission lines, which will cost another $4 billion). The 3,000 people will be sent to a mining company 1,700 miles away in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Katanga province. The rest will be used to improve power reliability in the capital Kinshasa. Rural residents will continue to live without doing anything.
a study Compare greener energy alternatives with Inga 3, environmental research letters A 2018 study suggests the dam is not fiscally prudent. The report concludes that in most scenarios, “a combination of wind, solar, and some natural gas is more cost-effective than Inga 3.” Since this study was published, the cost of solar and wind power has only decreased.
