Hurricane Milton became one of the most rapidly intensifying storms on record. Barely the strength of a hurricane to Dangerous Category 5 storm In less than a day, we were on our way across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida.
and Sustained winds reaching 180 mph On October 7, 2024, a very low pressure system formed, making it one of the most powerful Atlantic storms.
Milton’s wind reduced to category 4 strength It was expected to occur in the early hours of October 8, but forecasters warned that conditions would remain severe. very dangerous hurricane Upon landing.
In less than two weeks The devastating effects of Hurricane Helenthis type of storm was the last thing Florida wanted to see. Hurricane Milton was expected to make landfall as a major hurricane on October 9, and had already made landfall. prompted widespread evacuations.
The projected storm path of Hurricane Milton, which has grown into a major hurricane (M), as of noon on October 7, 2024. The storm’s track is a prediction, and Milton’s path is likely to change as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The cone shape is a possible path and does not reflect the size of the storm. (Credit: National Hurricane Center)
So what exactly is rapid intensification and what does global climate change have to do with it? Studying hurricane behavior and teach meteorology. Here’s what you need to know:
What is rapid consolidation?
Rapid intensification is defined by the National Weather Service as an increase in the maximum sustained wind speed of a tropical cyclone. At least 30 knots – approximately 35 knots miles per hour within 24 hours. This increase could be enough to escalate the storm from Category 1 to Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Milton’s wind speed has decreased From 80mph to 175 mph From 1pm on Sunday to 1pm on Monday, the barometric pressure dropped from 988 millibars to 911 millibars. Most of that increase in just 12 hours.
The National Hurricane Center had warned that Milton was likely to become a major hurricane, but such rapid intensification could catch people off guard, especially if it occurs close to landfall.
Hurricane Michael struck billions of dollars in damages In 2018, it rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm just before hitting Tyndall Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle. In 2023, hurricane otis Maximum wind speeds increased by 160 mph within 24 hours before reaching Acapulco, Mexico. hurricane ian It also rapidly intensified in 2022 before reaching just south of where Milton is predicted to cross Florida.
What causes hurricanes to intensify quickly?
Although rapid escalation is difficult to predict, there are several driving forces.
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Ocean heat: warm sea surface temperatureParticularly when it spreads into deeper layers of warm water, it provides the energy needed to intensify a hurricane. The deeper the warm water, the more energy is available to the storm and its intensity increases.
Sea surface temperatures were warm in the Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Milton passed north of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on October 7, 2024. 30 degrees Celsius is equivalent to 86 degrees Fahrenheit. (Credit: NOAA)
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Low wind shear: Strong vertical wind shear – rapid changes in wind speed and direction with height – can occur. disrupt the storm organizationOn the other hand, lower wind shear can cause hurricanes to grow more rapidly. In the case of Milton, atmospheric conditions were particularly conducive to rapid intensification.
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Moisture: Rising sea surface temperatures and decreasing salinity increase the amount of moisture available to storms, promoting rapid intensification. Warmer water provides the heat needed to evaporate water, but low salinity tends to trap that heat near the surface. This allows more sustained heat and moisture to be transferred into the storm. Enhanced driving faster and more powerful.
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Thunderstorm activity: The internal dynamics, such as bursts of intense thunderstorms within a rotating cyclone, Reorganize the cyclone circulation Leads to rapid strength gains even when other conditions are not ideal.
Research shows that globally, the majority of hurricanes of Category 3 or higher; Symptoms tend to worsen rapidly during life.
How will global warming affect the strength of hurricanes?
If you’ve heard a lot about rapid escalation in recent years, it’s partly because: it’s happening more often.
The annual number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean shows an increasing trend, with rapid development each year between 1980 and 2023. Climate Central, CC BY-ND
According to a 2023 study Relationship between rapid intensification and climate change We found that the number of tropical cyclones experiencing rapid intensification has increased over the past 40 years. This includes a significant increase in the number of hurricanes that rapidly intensify many times during their development.
Another analysis comparing trends from 1982 to 2017 with climate model simulations found: impossible due to natural fluctuations alone explain These increases were seen in rapidly intensifying storms, indicating that anthropogenic climate change is likely involved.
How future climate change will affect hurricanes is an active area of ​​research. However, as global temperatures and oceans continue to warm, The frequency of major hurricanes is predicted to increase. Recent extreme hurricanes, such as Beryl and Helen in June 2024, are already sounding the alarm about the increasing impact of global warming on the behavior of tropical cyclones.
Zachary Handros is an atmospheric science educator at Georgia Tech. Ali Sarhadi is an assistant professor of atmospheric science at Georgia Tech. This article is republished from conversation under Creative Commons License. please read original article.
