This is the second of a three-part series looking at how different factors in the presidential election could lead to a big win for Kamala Harris this year. You can find the first part here. The third and final part will be published on Wednesday.
Zeal for democracy
Following Kamala Harris’ campaign launch in August, Gallup Poll The survey found that Democrats were 78% more likely to say they were more eager to vote than usual, compared to 55% when Gallup asked the question in March, when President Joe Biden was seeking reelection. Even better, in August, only 64% of Republicans said they were more eager to vote than usual.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted just before last week’s presidential debates showed similar trends in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“89% of Michigan Democrats, 82% of Pennsylvanians, and 87% of Wisconsinites [the] Harris campaign, CBS News Reported“By comparison, 78% of Republicans [Donald] In Michigan, Trump has 1.5%; in Pennsylvania, 75%; and in Wisconsin, 76%.”
Engaged and unengaged voters are counted equally, but motivated voters are more likely to make phone calls, canvass doors, mail postcards, and do the hard work to win the election.
There is enthusiasm behind the numbers. Few people wanted to volunteer for Biden, and those who did were doing the hard work out of fear of a Trump reelection. Now people are enthusiastic about the work. for Not just Harris Against Trump, and they will work more because it’s fun!And that 2008-like enthusiasm makes the difference.
Voting promotion activities
As I recently wroteDonald Trump’s handpicked co-chairs of the Republican National Committee have wiped out the voting outreach team and replaced it with the pathetic “Trump Force 47 Captains” program, which recruits volunteers and tasks them with getting 10 people in their neighborhood to vote.
“The Trump Force 47 program replicates the same successful formula used in the Republican primary elections, allowing enthusiastic Trump supporters to receive limited edition MAGA hats and other merchandise to encourage their neighbors to vote.” Reported The Guardian. “Each volunteer starts off by receiving a list of 10 neighbours to personally mobilise. Once they reach that goal, they receive a larger list that includes people who are hard to reach through traditional polling methods like TV ads, postal mailings and phone banks.”
That’s fine in itself. But the RNC’s get-out-the-vote program as a whole is political malice. But it’s a cheap way to get out the vote, and Trump has no interest in spending money on something as unglamorous as a local program. As The Guardian noted, “Republican officials have been wary of the program, criticizing it as having as much incentive as other get-out-the-vote programs for volunteers to rush through the process just to get a hat, and pointing out that voter turnout for Trump in the primaries was not particularly high.”
A good field effort can be worth a few percentage points, giving the side that works harder than the other a slight advantage. But what happens when get-out-the-vote efforts become so one-sided?
Taylor Swift
Taylor Swift Approval Harris’s legitimate effect is apparent.
The problem is that polling is as much an art as it is a science. It’s not enough to know how different demographics voted in past elections. Pollsters also need to estimate what percentage of the electorate those demographics make up. For example, if black women make up 8% of the electorate ( 2020(Back then, 90% voted for Joe Biden.) Or 15%. And since pollsters can’t know the exact percentages in advance, they use history to make an estimate.
Voters aged 18 to 29 made up 17% of the electorate in 2020, compared with 19% in 2019. 2016So if you’re a pollster today, you’re probably in safe territory if you predict youth turnout at about 18%. But what if Swift boosts youth turnout, sending it soaring to 22% of the electorate? Only a pollster who predicts a higher youth turnout will get it right (although that 22% is a guess at best).
But the effect is real, and especially if Swift continues to stress the importance of voting. Mid-October Florida tour dates—There It could have an impact. How is Trump responding to this threat to his campaign?
We continue on Wednesday with a look at the deterioration of President Trump.
