Democrats are facing Hard Mathematics Take the Senate. But it’s a different story in the house.
Democrats hold 213 House seats for 220 Republicans, with two vacant seats in a safe, democratic district that will be filled with special elections later this year. If everything goes as expected, the Democrats have 215 seats, three shy people, and the majority shy.
The three are also the exact number of Republican-held districts won by Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Down Ballotan election tracking site previously known as the Daily KOS election. This shows a promising path for Democrats to seize the House in next year’s midterm elections.
Harris won two of these districts, but the 17th district in New York and the 1st in Pennsylvania were less than a percent, but she was also the first democratic presidential candidate. In 20 years Losing the popularity vote. In fact, according to Downballot, President Joe Biden had quite a bit of both districts in the 2020 election, with Pennsylvania’s No. 1 and New York’s No. 1 scored a whopping 10.1 points.
That being said, Republicans won these seats last year, so it’s by no means certain for Democrats in 2026. The party needs to defend Democrats’ seats in 13 districts that President Donald Trump won last year.
But there was one feat that Democrats managed last year: they picked up Two house sheets online Comparison with 2022Despite Harris’s tinsel performance at the top of the ticket. Even better, they are very likely to improve in 2026.
How do you know that? Historically, the party do not have At the White House I’ll pick up a seat in the middle period. In the two midterm elections since 1946, the Presidential Party won the House seats: 1998 and 2002. Going too far By September 11, 2001, President Bill Clinton’s blast each and another in the attack under President George W. Bush.
Aside from these two midterms, the worst outcome for the non-White House party since 1946 was just four seats, according to 538, and turning four seats over next year, Democrats returned to the majority.
Perhaps the Democrats will turn over four or more seats. That’s the Trump administration It was confusing and DestructiveI will lead to Large protest GOP lawmakers are getting Booing maliciously Between them The rare city hall.
The Democratic Party has also become Very good With excessive performance Low turn-out election. In previous special elections in 2025, Democrats beat Harris’ 2024 seats averaged 11 points, according to data from. Down Ballot.
Democrats have a higher turnout than these special elections, as they are unlikely to surpass Harris in all House districts in mid-2026. But if they manage it in any way, the Democrats would turn 30 seats upside down.
When Trump last faced the midterm, in 2018, the Democrats 40 seats turned over Online. There are many reasons why the mid-terms of 2018 and 2026 differ, but one is for the district Map has been redrawn During these elections, Democrats do not need to pick up another 40 seats. Or 30.
They need three.
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