Government ban on quantum computer exports has no scientific basis

Imagine what would happen if governments around the world announced they were going to restrict the sale of 34 centimeter rulers. There would be a lot of confusion, since that length doesn’t seem to have any special meaning and there are no 34 centimeter rulers.

Such laws are absurd, but several countries have enacted similar laws regarding quantum computers (see “Countries Enact Mysterious Export Restrictions on Quantum Computers”). The restrictions, which restrict the export of computers with more than 34 qubits (quantum bits) and error rates below a certain threshold, are puzzling because all published research shows that such devices are not practical.

But the very specificity of this number suggests there’s some ulterior motive behind it: Clearly someone, somewhere, is concerned about malicious uses of these devices (perhaps to break widely used encryption methods) and wants to restrict them in the name of national security.

So what’s going on? There are two possibilities: either they’re wrong, as the scientific evidence suggests, and a meaningless law is being copied and pasted all over the world, or they’re right, and are warning their opponents that this is a notable number. Either possibility seems counterproductive, but without access to the research behind these restrictions it’s hard to say.

One of the great strengths of science is that it is an open endeavor. Despite its flaws, peer review allows the world to pool its wisdom to scrutinize and improve research. Our approach to policymaking should be the same.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows how powerful this can be. By publicly compiling its findings, it has enabled policymakers to understand what needs to be done to tackle climate change, and allowed others to analyse policy decisions based on that evidence. Similarly, the research published during the COVID-19 pandemic has allowed us to publicly debate the rules imposed on us. Simply picking numbers out of the air, as is the case with quantum computing, is not a way to govern.