A new poll from Gallup, widely regarded as a liberal pollster, found Republicans leading in party ID in the third quarter of this year. This is the first time this has happened since 1992.
This bodes very well for the Trump campaign and the Republican Party as a whole.
This represents a shift in the electorate and suggests that people are less shy about identifying as conservative.
Nick Allama writes: Red status:
Gallup releases shocking poll against Trump that could be a game changer
Several major polls have come out in recent days with good news for former President Donald Trump. The NYT/Siena poll, the Emerson poll, and even the Quinnipiac poll (which tends to lean left). The NYT and Emerson were focused on battleground states where Trump is ahead. Quinnipiac polled nationally and gave Trump a one-point lead over voters.
Now, there’s a new Gallup poll, and if the results come out, it could be a game-changer. Guy Benson of our sister site Town Hall asked if this was “the best poll ever”. And given the history of polling, it’s easy to see why he would ask such a question.
Party ID lean says:
This is the first time since 1992 that Republicans have led in the third quarter of a presidential year.
See the graph of tweets below.
Gallup: First time Republicans led in party ID in the third quarter of a presidential year. pic.twitter.com/Beo4KyoNGB
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 24, 2024
See other years below for comparison.
Gallup’s track record is scarily accurate when it comes to the national popular vote by tracking PARTY ID/LEAN…and see what they predict for this election:
2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
2024: R+3 (?)just… pic.twitter.com/9mQnHRBDs8
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024
These numbers may seem small, but they represent a big shift in voting. If this trend can be maintained, there could be big changes in November.
