Global stagnation of nuclear power

The SMR sector will be set up again in 2024 and will not go anywhere. Nuward Project It’s stopped in France. This follows a previous decision Abandon With four other SMR projects bankruptcy Our company Ultra Safe Nuclear.

Renewable Energy

In contrast to the marginal benefits of nuclear power generation in 4.3 GW in 2024, the International Energy Agency’s October 2024 “Renewable Energy 2024” Report Estimate an additional 666 GW of global renewable capacity for 2024.

Based on agency estimates, the growth in renewable energy capacity was 155 times higher than the growth rate of nuclear power. In China, the ratio last year was 100:1.

International Energy Agency I look forward to it Renewable energy will jump sharply from 30% of global power generation in 2023 to 46% in 2030.

Conversely, since the 1990s, the global nuclear power generation share has steadily declined. Nuclear power generation is explained as of 2025 9.15% Of global electricity production, half of its peak in 1996 was 17.5%.

Renewable investments were 21 times more than nuclear investments. a Bloomberg analysis Renewable energy investment reached US$728 million in 2024, an 8% increase the previous year. This is compared to nuclear investments that remain at US$34.2 billion.

In contrast to the large-scale cost overruns in nuclear projects, renewable costs have fallen sharply. Lazard Investment Company data It shows that utility-scale solar and onshore winds were cheaper than nuclear power from 2010 to 2015.

Between 2009 and 2024, utility scale solar costs fell by 83%. Onshore wind costs have been reduced by 63%. Meanwhile, nuclear costs increased by 49%.

Newcomer

40-50 countries claim to be actively considering or planning nuclear power, in addition to the 32 countries that currently operate nuclear reactors, but they claim they cannot withstand scrutiny.

Earlier this year, the reactor was under construction in just 13 countries, less than twice a year ago. Seven percent of countries around the world build nuclear reactors – 93 percent do not.

Of the 13 countries, only nuclear reactor construction three Potential nuclear rookie nations are building the first plants in Egypt, Bangladesh and Torkiye. In these three countries, the nuclear project is led by the Russian nuclear agency Important advance funds From the Russian state.

World Nuclear Association I’ll observe Apart from these three countries, none of them meet the criteria of having a “planned” reactor. Those with “an approval, funds, or commitments that are primarily expected to be in operation within the next 15 years.”

There are only three potential new entrants with approval and funding in place or with ongoing construction, and these projects are heavily funded by the Russian state.

Phasing down

There is no evidence of future waves of nuclear newcomers.

As with historical patterns, there is trickle at best. In fact, there have been only seven newcomers in the past 40 years, and only three in this century.

From 1996 to 1997, the number of countries operating power plants reached 32. Since then, new countries have coincided with countries that have completed nuclear phase-out, so that numbers have stopped at 32, with less than a third of those countries building nuclear reactors.

It is doubtful whether the number of new nuclear countries will match the number of countries that complete phase-out in 20-30 years.

Capital Strike

Nuclear power cannot compete economically. The biggest problem in the industry at the moment is the perception of this by investors, resulting in a capital strike.

Even with generous government and taxpayer subsidies, it is becoming difficult or impossible to fund new reactors, particularly outside the scope of Russian projects in China and overseas.

Who will bet tens of millions of dollars on nuclear projects when there is a recent history of the country with vast expertise and experience? Morning?

In France, the latest costs estimate The only recent reactor construction project, the 1.6 GW Flamanville EPR, rose from seven times to €3.3 billion in one reactor to €23.7 billion. It took 17 years to build. Currently, nuclear reactors are under construction in France.

And the issue lies in line with the risks of Fukushima-scale disasters, the risks of weapons spread, the risks of attacks on nuclear power plants, and the risks of cumbersome nuclear waste legacy.

Some of these risks have already passed, as is the reality of Attack on Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.

bankruptcy

In the US, one South Carolina project, consisting of two Westinghouse AP1000 reactors, was abandoned in 2017 after at least US$9 billion was spent.

Westinghouse declared bankruptcy shortly after the cancellation of the South Carolina project, and the debt forced parent company Toshiba. Everything remains Nukegate scandal:an avalanche of legal measures including criminal cases.

The only other nuclear reactor construction project in the United States – the Georgia Twin Reactor Vogtle Project – reached completion at a cost of 12 times higher than initial estimates. final Fee Of the Vogtle project, it was at least US$17 billion per reactor. The completion was approximately seven years from now.

Power plants are currently under construction in the US. There are 13 nuclear reactors Shut down forever The past 15 years.

Subsidies

The situation is as bleak as it was in the UK 24 Permanent Reactor Shutdown This was the first time since the last reactor startup in 1995, 30 years ago.

Somerset’s 3.2 Golden Wed Twin Rareactor Hinckley Point project was scheduled to be completed in 2017, but construction did not begin until 2018. The estimated completion date was pushed back by 2031. Cost estimate – £23 billion per reactor – 11.5 times the initial estimate.

The UK National Audit Bureau estimates that Taxpayer Subsidies The Hinkley Point project could amount to $60.8 billion, which could be the public committee of the UK Parliament. I said The “consumers are putting their bills on the left, and the poorest consumers will be hit hardest.”

Estimated cost of the planned 3.2 GW Twin Rareactor Size Well C project in the UK jumped Almost 40 billion pounds – Or £20 billion per reactor – this is twice the cost estimate for 2020.

Securing funds to start construction in Sizewell has proven difficult and prolonged despite a new “regulated asset-based” funding model that reinforces the huge risk of huge costs being rejected. Taxpayers and electricity bill payers. It is also difficult to secure funds to complete the Hinkley Point project.

lesson

France, the US and the UK have enormous nuclear expertise and experience. They all enjoy the synergy of civil and military nuclear programs – President Macron I said 2020 speech Without France’s nuclear power, there would be no nuclear weapons, vice versa.

All of the above construction projects were or existed existing nuclear sites. All projects were long behind and had a budget of tens of millions of dollars.

Potential nuclear rookies argue that without these benefits, nuclear reactors can be built quickly and cheaply.

This author

Dr. Jim Greene is a national nuclear activist with friends from Earth Australia and members of the nuclear consulting group.

An expanded report on these issues is Energyscience Coalition Website. The report is co-authored by Darrin Durant, Jim Faulk, associate professor of science and technology research at the University of Melbourne, professors of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Science at the University of Melbourne, and professor emeritus at the University of Wollongong and Dr. Jim Green.