Scientists warn that global temperatures are likely to exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C over the next five years.
The 2024 temperature record, at least temporarily, broke the 1.5c threshold where the country agreed to limit global warming to avoid the most dangerous effects. And with the new climate forecast, the next five can do the same for another year.
Also, analysis from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office showed that there is a 70% chance that the five-year global temperature average would exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C or more.
tropical
There is an 80% chance that a new record of global temperatures will be set for at least one year between 2025 and 2029, the analysis shows.
And the climate modeling, although the scientists behind the analysis say “exceptionally unlikely,” shows for the first time that global average temperatures could surpass pre-2030 levels of pre-industrial revolution.
Scientists also warn that Northern Europe will be able to see extremely wet winters in the next five years. This is one of the important climate risks in the region and poses a flood risk.
The World Paris Climate Treaty promised actions to pursue efforts to keep the rise at 1.5c to avoid the worst effects of droughts, floods, heat waves and extreme storms caused by climate change, far below 2c levels, far below pre-industrial levels.
The global average temperatures first exceeded 1.5c above the 1850-1900 average in 2024, and the El Nino climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific increased temperatures in addition to human-induced global warming.
shocking
Long-term warming numbers are averaged over 20 years, so the likelihood of exceeding 1.5C over the next five years does not mean that the threshold has been breached forever.
However, scientists suggest that warming is now about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, measured from baselines between 1850 and 1900 before the global massive combustion of fossil fuels began.
And Professor Adam Skyeff of the Met Office said, “These latest predictions suggest that we are now very close to 1.5c age.”
“There was one in 2024, but the frequency is increasing and we’re seeing a lot of these,” he said, pointing to an 86% chance of 1850-1900 baseline at 1.5c over the next five years.
“These are shocking statistics and now we even have a chance. It’s the first time I’ve seen such an event in my 2C computer forecast, which is completely unprecedented.
Ecosystem
“That’s still unlikely to be exceptionally unlikely, but there’s a 1% chance of seeing it over the next five years, but now it’s possible. That was virtually impossible just a few years ago.”
Global annual climate updates are published annually by WMO and produced by Met Office.
Additionally, the rain patterns from May to September 2025 are wetter than the recent averages in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska and Northern Siberia, and are expected to be dry during the Amazon period.
Arctic warming is predicted to continue to exceed the global average affecting local wildlife and communities.
Co Barrett, Deputy Director General of WMO, said:
“Unfortunately, this WMO report does not provide any signs of rest over the next few years. This means there will be a stronger negative impact on our economy, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planets.”
This author
Emily Beament is a PA Environmental Correspondent.
