Last week, Nifty 50 (24,719) and Nifty Bank (55,527) were depreciated. However, this may not have looked bad. This is the analysis.
Nifty 50
Nifty Futures (Jun) (24,727) lost 1.5% last week. As it happened, open interest fell 3%, present in the Rs 1.18 lakh contract on Friday. This shows some long rewinds.
The put call ratio (PCR) for the nearest weekly option was 0.70 on Friday. The ratio below 1 is due to the relatively high number of call options sales. Traders sell phones when their outlook fades.
Additionally, monthly option PCR in June was 1 on Friday, down from 1.15 a week ago. Therefore, optional positioning indicates a clear bear bias.
However, price action shows that the bears are not gaining full control. Nifty Futures (Jun) declined, but on Friday there was a recovery behind the scenes of 24,650 support.
Therefore, the 24,650-25,250 price range where contracts have been traded for the past month remains in effect. Until one of these levels is taken, we cannot be certain about the following trends.
However, the broader trend is bullish. If Nifty Futures (Jun) recovers and splits out of 25,250, it could potentially attract 26,000 people. Resistance exceeding 26,000 is 27,000.
On the other hand, if the bear gains more traction and drags Nifty Futures (Jun) below 24,650, the downtrend is likely to range in potential support levels of 24,200 and 24,000.
strategy: Buy the purchase trade started at Hold Nifty Futures (Jun) 24,970. However, to reduce the risk of losses due to geopolitical uncertainty, we will correct the outage loss upward from 24,450 to 24,550. Keep the target at 26,000.
Options traders can consider purchasing the June Expiry 24,800-Call option, which closed on Friday at £228.40. But this is a short-term deal. Target and stop losses are £500 and £100 respectively.
Nifty Bank
Nifty Bank Futures (Jun) (55,614) fell 2% last week. Also, open interest has declined. It fell 7% on Friday, and was present on a 19.6 lark deal. This indicates a long rewind.
The PCR for the June expiration option has decreased from 1 on June 6th to 0.70 on June 13th, indicating that more call short positions have been added when compared to PUT. This is a sign of bearishness.
Futures and options data gives Nifty Bank Futures (Jun) a bearish bias, but the chart shows that the contract is above key support levels.
The previous uptrend 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is 55,400, which is the closest support. Other notable support is 55,000 and 54,000. As long as 54,000 bases are in effect, nifty bank futures (JUNs) will retain positive trends.
The contract may resume uptrends after it has dipped from its current level or to 55,000 or 54,000. This upward movement can bring clever bank futures (June) to a price range of 57,800-58,000. The closest barrier over 58,000 is 60,000.
strategy: Given the market uncertainty caused by geopolitical developments, traders are encouraged to stay for now, given that Nifty Bank Futures (Jun) could potentially extend the current DIP further before the rally resumes.
If it drops to 55,000, buy Nifty Bank Futures (Jun). The target and stop losses are 57,500 and 54,000, respectively.
Released on June 14th, 2025
