Compared with the dramatic twists and turns of the presidential election, Florida’s primary on Tuesday will be relatively tame. The only race on the statewide ballot is for the Senate seat held by Republican Rick Scott, whose opponent will be revealed in November.
With Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis pushing conservatives to pick up several seats, local races, including school board seats, will be a major driver of people heading to the polls.
Let’s take a look at what to expect in Florida’s primary election.
U.S. Senate
Though Scott technically does not have a primary, he is expected to easily beat two minor candidates with little name recognition or funding. He has the backing of his party, in addition to the power of incumbency, and has already spent about $27 million on his reelection bid, including millions of his own personal funds.
The leading candidate in the Democratic primary is former U.S. Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who in 2018 became the first Ecuadorean American and South American-born woman elected to Congress. She lost her seat after one term.
Mucarsel-Powell has the backing of party officials and has raised $12 million for her race, and Scott is already campaigning as if she were his opponent, but she will first face off against Navy veteran and businessman Stanley Campbell, Army veteran and businessman Rod Joseph and four-term Florida Rep. Brian Rush.
meeting
Incumbents are competing for 27 of the state’s 28 House seats, and barring something unexpected, all of them should win their primaries. The one open seat is currently held by Republican Bill Posey in a conservative district on Florida’s mid-Atlantic coast.
Posey announced his retirement hours after former Senate President Mike Haridopolos qualified to run in the election. He quickly endorsed Haridopolos, who is now facing off against IT businessman John Harton. The winner of the Republican primary will be the favorite to win in November’s election. Democrats Sandy Kennedy and Daniel McDow are seeking the Democratic nomination.
Rep. Matt Gaetz is seeking a fifth term The race has also attracted attention because former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political committee has attacked Gaetz and supported his primary opponent, Aaron Dimock. McCarthy’s involvement in the race came after Gaetz led a group of eight far-right Republicans, with the help of Democrats, to oust McCarthy from his position as speaker.
The attacks against Gaetz have been brutal and stem from a House Ethics Committee investigation into sexual misconduct and drug use. But the allegations are not new, and Gaetz has a loyal following in his district, which includes Pensacola and much of the Panhandle. Since being elected in 2016, Gaetz has handily won his primaries with margins between 65% and 80% of the vote.
State and local elections
For the first time in history, Florida Democrats fielded candidates for all 120 House seats and 40 Senate seats, a laudable achievement that forced Republicans to spread their money around, but Democrats lost control of the Senate in 1992 and the House in 1996.
Republicans hold supermajorities in both houses of Congress, and while some seats may switch parties after November, Republicans are likely to maintain control of Congress.
Board of Education Elections Some districts will see more attention under DeSantis. Support This term, he is fielding 23 school board candidates in 14 counties and targeting 14 incumbent board members. “Woke” ideology In public schools.
By the numbers
By the time the primary election polls close, Republicans outnumbered Democrats The number of registered voters fell from 5.3 million to 4.3 million, with 3.5 million choosing not to register with a political party.
As of Friday morning, about 1.6 million of Florida’s 13.5 million eligible voters had cast ballots by mail or at early polling stations, indicating low turnout overall in the primary. Republicans cast about 733,000 ballots, while Democrats cast about 515,000 ballots.
