loss
Many people in Kazakhstan believe that beyond climate change, part of the blame lies with Russia’s actions. “Another main reason is that Russia has built infrastructure on the Ural and Volga rivers and keeps water there,” Armand Heilin said.
Most of the Volga and Ural rivers, which supply 80 percent of the fresh water flowing into the Caspian Sea, are within Russia’s borders. Large reservoirs primarily support agricultural and energy needs, but also serve as an important source of drinking water for Russian cities.
In the spring of 2024, dramatic flooding occurred in the Ural Basin, but in the previous summer the water level had dropped enough for Atyrau residents to cross the river on foot, leaving boats stranded on the shore.
“As far as the Urals and the Volga are concerned, despite the Russian side’s willingness to discuss the issue, they are only following national interests,” said Laura Malikova, head of the Kazakhstan Association of Practical Ecologists.
“They don’t want to incur economic losses by releasing more water into Kazakhstan.”
cooperation
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan border the Caspian Sea. All five countries are signatories to the Tehran Treaty, which was formally adopted in 2003. The Convention serves as an important institutional framework for promoting environmental protection in the Caspian Sea region.
The five countries have adopted several protocols, including two addressing pollution and one focused on wildlife protection. However, these agreements still ignore the issue of sea level decline.
Officials have long taken a passive stance, reassured by some scientific reports suggesting that the Caspian Sea’s fluctuations are part of a natural cycle of uplift and subsidence.
But recently, it has adopted a more proactive approach as key economic activities face growing threats. The COP29 summit held in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan and the largest city on the Caspian Sea coast, focused on the current situation in the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan sought to develop a regional plan to address this issue, but this effort still to be revealed.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said: explained COP29 said the situation was a crisis that could “destroy ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods and threaten food security and stability across the region.” She called for “bold action” and increased regional cooperation.
plummeted
One of the most significant impacts may be mass migration, as many coastal communities are at risk of losing their livelihoods as fishermen and farmers. According to Inger Andersen, up to 5 million people could be displaced by the middle of this century due to the environmental crisis.
Dumba is a large fishing village near Atyrau and a residential suburb. Meiranbek (28), a resident of Dumba, said, “Sometimes I go fishing, but most of the time I drive a taxi.The older generation still goes to the sea out of nostalgia, but the younger generation is spoiled for choice.” Because there are so few of them, they rarely go out to sea.” Of fish. ”
Declining fish populations are affecting communities such as Damba and Zambai. “There used to be a lot of fish and caviar. Now there’s no water and no fish,” said Didar Yesmokhanov, the mayor of Zambai.
In Zambei, the official fishing season lasts for several months in the spring and autumn, and currently focuses mainly on carp. Due to low living standards, many people continue to illegally fish for sturgeon, despite low catches. Yesmokhanov added: “Currently fishing for sturgeon is illegal and the fines are high. I used to eat sturgeon all the time and I miss it.”
Besides sturgeon, other fish species are also under threat. Catfish and pike are disappearing in Kazakhstan, and authorities have imposed a temporary fishing ban to protect remaining populations. In Russia, the catch of sea bream has decreased tenfold over the past 85 years, and the cockroach population has also declined dramatically.
health
In western Kazakhstan, areas where the sea has recently receded are barren, leaving only vast stretches of sand. This has an even worse effect on seasonal sandstorms.
For coastal communities, ocean retreat is a pressing public health concern. Yana Zambai is located 25 km west of Zambai on the railway to Russia.
“Dust storms occur frequently in the summer. Sometimes they are so strong that you can’t see the garden. I have developed a dust allergy. It’s a challenging season for me,” said resident Asel Sherjenova.
In villages like Jana Zambei, agriculture faces challenges as there are few fruits and vegetables to grow. “The climate is very dry and getting hotter, so people here are more involved in camel breeding,” said elderly resident Ibragim Bozakayev.
Ibragim Bozakaev owns several cows and camels. Animal health is also affected by lower sea levels. He added: “The dust carried by receding oceans contains salt and is very harmful to animals.”
tragedy
For many observers, the fate of the Caspian Sea is reminiscent of the Aral Sea on the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once the fourth largest lake in the world, it has shrunk considerably as Soviet-era irrigation projects rerouted the river. By the 2000s, 90 percent of its water had been lost and it had become a desert.
The local government of Atyrau continues to dredge the river’s mouth to allow boats to reach the open sea and to help fish migrate upstream.
A young Atyrau city employee working on the project said: “We are drilling every year, but the sea is moving further and further away. It feels like we are chasing it.” Civil servants say the Caspian Sea will not become a second Aral I’m afraid.
Efforts to restore the Aral Sea include the construction of the Kok Aral Dam, which was completed in 2005. The project partially restored the water level of the North Aral Sea, which now covers less than 5 percent of the original Aral Sea.
Fish populations have also increased, revitalizing the local economy. However, the South Aral Sea remains in an irreparable state due to severe desertification and limited water inflow.
bottleneck
The clock may be ticking to find a solution to the Caspian Sea problem. In November 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the problem as “serious” in a speech and initiated the creation of a research institute dedicated to studying the Caspian Sea.
The government officially approved the project in January last year, but the institute has not yet been established.
The Caspian Sea states are all allies of Russia, but the geopolitical situation is hindering the resolution of the crisis. Moscow has prioritized its economic needs to sustain its war effort in Ukraine and is using the water dispute to pressure neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan into more cooperative attitudes.
“When it comes to water resources, it should not be politicized. There should be no conditions for Kazakhstan to support Russia in the war in Ukraine, and then they They can give us more water.”
The five Caspian countries are scheduled to meet again next year at COP7 in Tehran, where the issue of lower sea levels is likely to be a central topic of discussion.
this author
Clément Girard is a freelance reporter who writes in-depth international reporting with a focus on Türkiye and the Caucasus. His works are listed below wired, guardianAl Jazeera, le monde magazine and Ecologist. Natalia Paramonova and Vladimir Sevlinovsky contributed reporting from Russia. This article was produced with support from the Journalism Fund Europe. This article was partially funded through the Ecologist Writers Fund. We’re asking readers to donate £200 to some authors for their work. please Please donate now. For more information about the fund, you can apply through our website.
