Donald Trump had no shortage of potential running mates. There were several likely names on his list, including Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota. Senator J.D. Vance elected In Ohio.
He was the worst choice.
In some ways, vice presidential picks are overrated and rarely have a meaningful impact on the overall dynamics of a campaign. Typically, VP picks are most effective at mobilizing a candidate’s base. In that respect, Vance is not the worst pick. Sharp right turn In recent years, it has become a delight for MAGA followers.
But this is not a normal election year. When a presidential candidate needs to defend himself against a fight, the running mate serves as an attack dog. Dick Cheney and Sarah Palin come to mind. The least effective running mates are those who have no credibility with their base, like Hillary Clinton’s pick, Sen. Tim Kaine.
Trump doesn’t need attack dogs. No one can mobilize the MAGA base more effectively, and he’s not afraid to speak out. Trump isn’t going to shy away from a fight.
The selection of another running mate helps fill holes in the presidential candidate’s resume, such as when Joe Biden filled Barack Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience (which voters never really cared about at the time). Capitol Hill commentator David Broders He needed to be soothed.
So what does it actually take for Trump to win? He needs to grow his base, and that means tamping down extremism, not escalating it.
Rubio could have helped Trump make deeper inroads among Latino voters, but Trump is (outdated) Constitutional prohibition Both candidates reside in the same state.
Scott could have done the same with black voters, especially older and younger black voters. male Who In opinion polls (This was not seen in the actual election results, but maybe it is true.) There was no constitutional impediment to preventing Trump from selecting Scott.
“Broadening the base” also involves bringing back college-educated suburban women and, to a lesser extent, men who have already switched to the Democratic Party or are ready to do so. Trump’s UN ambassador and former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley, would have been a smart choice to appeal to that demographic and show party unity. Polls have consistently shown that a small but significant percentage of Haley’s supporters are reluctant to vote for Trump, which could make a difference in a close race. But the reality is that Trump was not going to nominate a woman to his slate, especially not a woman of color, whom he supports. It has been repeatedly called “bird brain.”
Burgum is a wealthy, older, white man, a stand-in for Trump’s favorite demographic, and while not particularly inspiring, he may have offered a sense of normalcy and stability at a time when many voters are tired of Trump’s noise.
All of these elections would have been strategically advantageous for Trump, but Trump once called him “Hitler in America.”
Indeed, Vance has made numerous statements harshly criticizing Trump. A detailed account of his retaliation will be published soon, but Such a gem “A lot of people think that Trump is the first person to appeal to the racism and xenophobia that was already there, but I think he’s just making the problem worse.” and“[Trump] It is ultimately a destructive force.” But there is nothing Trump enjoys more than bringing his former enemies to their knees, which Vance was quite happy and servile in doing so.
So what does Vance bring to the table for this candidate?
He cannot cultivate his base any more effectively than Trump, whose Senate race was a major disappointment. Won by just 6 points 2022. His Republican predecessor, Rob Portman, Won by 21 points 2016. (Trump Win against Ohio State by 8 points In the 2020 presidential election, Vance was a disastrous candidate and a desperate fundraiser, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell Spend $32 million To save Vance. That money could have been used to run against Democratic opponents like Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. All four won by less than five points, keeping the Democrats in the Senate.
It’s no surprise that Trump would pick Vance and not the actual winner: Trump rarely associates with competent, competent people.
While Vance has criticized Trump in the past, his record is everything Democrats would want to counter. Thank you directly to the authors of Project 2025 for drafting a radical blueprint for President Trump’s next administration.
In other words, Trump needs all the help he can get to grow his base, and by choosing Vance, he’s made it clear he has no interest in doing so.
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