Disturbing news about global warming emerges as international climate negotiations turn into a ‘circus’

with the united nations COP29 At a climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, disturbing news about global warming surfaced.

The summit, attended by around 60,000 diplomats from around 200 countries, is intended to be a forum to discuss and adopt solutions. However, this year there has been more controversy than usual. Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take power in Washington after recent studies show the climate plight is not being alleviated. And, of course, he has been committed to reversing the transition to climate-friendly energy sources.

Some recent climate news is provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The department is to be “dismantled and downsized” in the now infamous Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint aimed at guiding the new government.

According to NOAA, last month second warmest October On record, it was recorded by a narrow margin by October of last year. NOAA calculates that for the past year (January to October), Earth has experienced the warmest period in records dating back to 1850.

The agency said 2024 will almost certainly surpass last year’s global annual heating crown, given that global warming is unstoppable.

Of course, global warming is primarily caused by CO2 emissions. According to New predictions from the Global Carbon ProjectEmissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach a record high of 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024. This is a modest increase of 0.8% compared to 2023, but to limit global warming to relatively manageable levels the world will have to change direction and reduce emissions very quickly . .

This point is further emphasized in a new report, Announced at the COP Summit International Cryosphere Climate Initiative. ICCI is dedicated to highlighting what science tells us about the effects of climate change on regions of the world covered by ice and snow, whether seasonally or year-round. This research is especially important because the cryosphere is changing faster than anywhere else on Earth, and what happens there can potentially affect us all.

Among the many discoveries, Current status of the cryosphere 2024 report We conclude that the national commitments based on this will be achieved. paris agreement Greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets fall far short of what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The current course would see a “significant overshoot” of that target, the report said.

Slowing the transition from fossil fuels to zero-carbon energy sources may seem economically advantageous in the short term. However, this would “lock in widespread loss and damage from the cryosphere for decades or even centuries in the future, and the need for adaptation, even where technically feasible, would be far greater.” higher and more expensive,” the report said.

Miriam Jackson, a glaciologist and climate scientist at ICCI who contributed to the report, emphasizes that the impacts we are already seeing will only increase in frequency and intensity.

“Actions that slow, stop, or reverse global warming are like saving for retirement,” she told me via email. “The earlier you start, the easier it will be.”

Among its many conclusions, the report found that in the long term, global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius could melt enough of Greenland and West Antarctica to cause sea levels to rise by 10 meters, or nearly 33 feet. I’m predicting. According to the report, approximately 75% of all cities with a population of 5 million or more are located below 10 meters above sea level.

Leadership is needed but clearly lacking.

With the intensification and frequency of extreme weather events, strong leadership is required to avoid their consequences. Unfortunately, however, recent US election results and the proceedings of this year’s COP summit suggest that much of that may be out of sight for the foreseeable future.

As pointed out in previous columnBased on the Project 2025 Policy Blueprint published by the Heritage Foundation, NOAAdemolished Many of its functions have been abolished, transferred to other agencies, privatized, or placed under state or territory control. ”

NOAA generates terabytes of data every day from its network of satellites and observatories, models and forecasts related to all aspects of Earth’s planetary life support systems. These irreplaceable data are critical to understanding and responding to natural disasters and climate change.

It is not unreasonable to think that dismantling NOAA would result in a significant deterioration of this research. It would have the effect of gouging out our eyes as we hurtle toward a climate cliff.

Some may expect Project 2025, which was prepared separately from the Trump campaign, to have limited influence in the new administration. But that would be naive.

During President Trump’s first term, withdrew The United States withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international climate agreement adopted by 196 parties at the COP21 conference. America under President Biden rejoinedthen went on to enact far-reaching legislation to facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels.

The president-elect has withdrawn again and vowed to block clean energy while increasing oil and gas production. He is also working to prevent US involvement in future global climate change agreements, such as those often agreed at COP summits.

But if ongoing developments at COP29 are any guide, those trying to stand in the way of effective climate action may not need much help from the next president. Angela Dewan, CNN’s international climate editor, said: analysis piece About the summit:

“In what was supposed to be one of the most urgent meetings of the year aimed at slowing a global crisis that is rapidly spiraling out of control, talks have turned into a circus of boycotts, political infighting and fossil fuel celebrations. Aliyev was a great leader, said President Ilham of Azerbaijan, the organizer.

And even before the meeting began, COP29 CEO Ernur Soltanov said: recorded in secret Discuss prospects for closing oil and gas deals meanwhile A two week conference.

We asked Miriam Jackson, a glaciologist and climate scientist who contributed to the cryosphere report, what she observed while attending COP29. She emailed me and said, “My honest response may not be printable,” and then offered this opinion:

“Many diplomats and other participants at COP29 are frustrated by the slow pace of progress. Scientists are especially frustrated because they seem to be approaching this in a business transaction way.”It’s the biggest crisis facing humanity.” ”

Future columns will provide more of Jackson’s thoughts on the COP meeting and what the Cryosphere Report says about the state of the world’s ice. The report also includes perspectives from two of her scientific collaborators in Baku.

There is a good chance that negotiators will agree on some useful diplomatic language on tackling climate change between now and the end of the climate summit on Sunday, November 22nd. But if what we’re seeing is any guidance, it’s most likely a flimsy of shameless rhetoric masking a lack of commitment to doing anything meaningful.

This would be extremely disastrous, as there is really no way around the basic physics of greenhouse heating.

Or, as the authors of the State of the Cryosphere 2024 report put it, “the melting point of ice cannot be negotiated.”