Customs duties don’t just hit your wallet. It also allows for increased food waste.

Spring is coming out, and you can see it by looking at Dig’s online menu. The fast casual chain, known for its rich salads and bowls, is promoting new sandwiches for spring. This is “Avo Smash” where chicken and tofu are wrapped in brioche bread, pesto aioli and plenty of bright green avocados.

The seasonal menu at lunch spots is planned at least three months in advance, and Dig’s supply director Andrew Torrens means Avo Smash has been working on it for a while. However, if the US decides to escalate the World Trade War next month, DIG will need to come up with a backup plan earlier.

“If the price of an avocado explodes, what’s the backup? How do you pivot?” Torrens said on a recent call.

Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. It creates confusion among restaurant owners, food distributors, grocery stores and consumers who rely on fruits and vegetables all year round for their US neighbors. On February 1, the president signed an executive order that imposes a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. However, he pushed back the start date twice. Earlier this month, he suspended customs duties on most items coming in from Mexico and Canada until April 2nd. What actually happens on that day – Trump says, “Release date” – Almost unknown yet.

Customs duties on goods from Mexico, the only largest supplier of horticultural imports to the US, almost certainly means rising prices at grocery stores. It also allows for increased food waste along the supply chain, according to experts.

A warm climate delves into most of the avocados from Mexico, ideal for growing these fruits. This is common – actually about 90% of avocados consumed in the US come from MexicoAccording to the US Department of Agriculture. “We’ve seen a lot of experience in agriculture economics and policy,” said David Ortega, professor at Michigan State University. Tariffs can cause these prices to rise by increasing production costs. However, the lack of clarity regarding US trade relations has already affected the operation of the food and beverage industry.

“There’s so much uncertainty. You don’t know how to run your business and you don’t know how to plan it,” Torrence said. “If you know what the new reality is, you’ll adapt to it.”

Other food chains are upset by the Trump administration’s policies. in Annual submission By the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the salad chain sweet greens have listed “international trade barriers” as one factor that could skyrocket the costs of ingredients like avocados. Additionally, undocumented workers mentioned the threat of massive deportation as supply chain disruptions. Asked about the tariffs, Scott Boatwright, CEO of Mexican-style burrito giant Chipotle, told reporters that the company would not give customers high costs. “It’s our intention to sit here today to absorb these costs,” said Boat Light. Talking to NBC Nightly News On March 2, a few days before Trump announced a one-month suspension of duties on goods covered by the US-Mexico-Canada contract or USMCA, he announced the USMCA, a trade agreement he negotiated during his first term.

Much has been written and said about the economic impact of tariffs. One lesser known side effects is food loss and potential waste, although it can affect the environment. This can occur at various points along the food supply chain, from farms to US-Mexico borders to grocery store shelves. Brenna Ellison, professor of agribusiness management at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, said unlike what he felt during the pandemic, “I think tariffs are a bit of a supply chain disruption.” The trouble comes from the fact that fruits and vegetables are very prone to decay.

“If you’re struggling to get them domestically because of the cost, and if it’s more hesitant to bring those products into the country among our buyers, the watches are really fast,” Ellison said. Usually, items that give way to our consumers will be “quickly wasteful unless we can find some alternative uses for them.”

Food loss and waste are measured by looking at the amount of edible foods grown for human consumption. It follows the path to consumers, like in the shop or kitchen, whether it is in the harvest and processing stages. When organic matter, like fruits and vegetables, is thrown away, it is often caught up in landfills. methanea powerful greenhouse gas, it is rotten. In the US, Most of the wasteful food (about 60%) goes to landfillsAccording to the Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA also discovered 55 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent material each year. Released from food waste in landfills.

There have been reports that farmers were rotting food in the fields as restaurants were closed and growers lost access to their regular customers. Ellison says this could happen again if he raises produce prices to the point that he is not sure that growers are used to it.

However, she pointed out that this does not necessarily mean that those crops will be sent to landfills. “In some cases, depending on the crop, we can till the soil,” Ellison said, sending plant nutrients back to the earth.

However, there is a possibility that more waste will be generated along the supply chain – on the way to the market and at the grocery store. If tariffs lead to delays in handling at borders, it could corrupt more produce before or before meeting with consumers, Ortega said. He also said that when the Trump administration first announced tariffs, “many importers started what we call ‘frontloading’. “They started getting a lot of products across the border to beat the tariffs.”

Overordering fresh produce means you have to sell it. In mid-March, several Whole Foods Market stores in New York City promoted Mexican produce, including avocados and mangoes. Whole Foods did not respond to requests for comment on whether the sale was related to the tariff announcement. The importer of United Natural Foods Inc. – Whole Foods did not have comment, according to Kristin Jimenez, vice president of Corporate Communications.

Ellison of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign University said food remains on grocery store shelves can also lead to food waste. This can happen when retailers can’t produce and sell everything, or when prices go up and “can’t afford” to buy, Ellison added.

It is also possible that consumers will be able to see a more limited availability of products as retailers try to switch sourcing to avoid tariffs.

Trump had been campaigning to cut the costs of goods at grocery stores, but a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico could make basics like fruits and vegetables even more expensive. That’s what hunger relief organizations are worried about.

“It’s clear that whenever there is potential disruption in the supply chain, particularly fruits and vegetables, it can affect the ability to feed those in need,” says Jen Cox, Chief Development Officer of Food Rescue Operations, focusing on food rescue operations, after-school programs, and more, which focuses on food rescue operations that redistribute food banks. She added that tariffs will exacerbate the already difficult cost-of-living situation for many people in the United States, leading to an increase in hunger.

The US has set a goal of reducing food waste in half by 2030. We are not near it. If tariffs promote an increase in food sent to landfills, it becomes one of the multiple knock-on effects that trade barriers have on consumers. “This is like a confusion of all these situations,” Cox said. Those complex crises, economic, social and environmental, mean organizations like her can fill their hands in the coming months and work to fill the gaps that could create “America First” trade policies.