He said: “I certainly tend to be an optimistic person, but looking at this year’s annual update, everything is moving in the wrong direction.”
“Not only are they moving in the wrong direction, they’re also seeing some unprecedented changes.”
Looking back at the IPCC report, he said: “What we wanted to see at this point is that these emissions are beginning to turn the corner and unfortunately they haven’t been happening.”
Instead, he said emissions have been rising year by year since the 2021 report, and remained the highest ever.
violation
This year’s update covers key climate systems indicators such as greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, global energy imbalances, human-induced climate change, remaining carbon budgets, and maximum land temperatures.
But for the first time, the annual update also included sea level rise and global land precipitation.
In 2024, the best estimate of global surface temperature rise observed was 1.52C, of ​​which 1.36C could be attributed to human activity caused by global greenhouse gas emissions, scientists said.
The report stated that last year’s high temperatures were “surprisingly exceptional” as the combination of human-driven climate change and El Nino weather phenomena bring global heat to record levels.
The global average temperature exceeded 1.5c for the first time, but this does not mean that the world has violated the Landmark United Nations Agreement.
Erosion
When analyzing long-term temperature changes, best estimates by scientists show that between 2015 and 2024, the average global temperature was 1.24c higher than before the Industrial Revolution, and 1.22C was caused by human activity.
Elsewhere, we found that human activity has an impact on the Earth’s energy balance. The ocean preserved about 91% of the excess heat, promoting harmful changes in all components of the climate system, including sea level rise, ocean warming, ice loss, and permafrost melting.
Between 2019 and 2024, the global average sea level also increased by about 26mm, more than doubled the annual long-term rate of 1.8mm seen since the turn of the 20th century.
Dr Amy Slangen, research leader at the Nios Royal Dutchasse Institute, said the rise has already had a “major impact” on low-lying coastal areas, causing rain surges and coastal erosion that cause more damage.
extreme
“The concern is that we know that sea level rise in response to climate change is relatively slow, meaning it’s already increasing even more in the next few decades,” she said.
The IPCC’s final assessment of the climate system, published in 2021, highlights the widespread negative effects of climate change on nature and people.
Professor Rogeli said:
“Emissions over the next decade will determine how fast and how fast we can reach 1.5c warming. We need to cut quickly to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets.”
This author
Rebecca Speare-Cole is a PA sustainability reporter.
