Around the world, extreme weather has driven rising deaths, forced billions of damage, threatened food and water safety, and escalated forced relocation. However, some of the most sophisticated climate models of computer simulations of the vast and complex climate systems of the Earth based on the laws of physics lack important signals.
Research papers are currently published Natural Communicationco-authored by postdoctoral researcher Fen Zhang. Climate scientist Richard Seger, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and Mark Kane’s Lamont research at the Parisades Geophysics Institute/Columbia School of Climate is wrong.
“Our Lamont work has been at the heart of the climate science community’s debate, and has been caught up in climate scientists around the world to rethink the model,” says Seeger. “Contradictions can be seen in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Specifically, the equatorial cold tongue,” explains Seager. The cold tongue is a relatively cold strip of water that stretches along the equator from Peru to the Western Pacific Ocean, a quarter of the Earth’s circumference. It fell into predictions by not warming up the way a generation of climate models says they should.
“The rest of the tropical ocean is dry in North America, East Africa and Southeastern South America, but it means wet in other regions such as the Amazon, but the cold tongue that has not warmed says “Seager says. “It also means a more tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.”
The incorrect trends in cold tongue temperatures will also lead to poor predictions of regional climate change in these and other regions. It is a contradiction that has attracted attention for over 20 years. Many scientists believed that the natural fluctuations in the southern El Nino vibration would hide the response to rising greenhouse gases, and that the cold equator tongue would eventually warm up and line up with the model. That’s not happening.
“For 27 years, this inconsistency between models and observations is still there. In fact, it has grown and not small over time,” Seager says. “It’s beyond time for the model to be improved to better capture the processes governing surface temperature response to CO2 in the tropical Pacific Ocean.”
This study for the first time, there are two patterns in the workplace, one of which is natural variability, oscillations back and forth, so-called Pacific oscillations between decadals, and what has been steadily emerging since the mid-1950s. there is. Trends This study calls Pacific Climate Change (PCC) patterns. Scientists argue that the emergent PCC patterns are tropical Pacific responses to rising CO2.
“Our findings set a pathway to help climate modelers communicate the difference,” Jiang says. “The whole question of how the tropical Pacific is responding to CO2 enforcement is really a big deal about the region’s climate change and how much climate warming we experience.”
Jiang and Seeger say there is still a lot of work to do. However, this latest study holds important guidance from climate modelers, and appears especially in cold tongue regions to improve regional and global climate change predictions and impacts on extreme weather. It demonstrates the need to address years of bias in simulating patterns.
