Joe Biden and Donald Trump both claim credit The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas begins to take effect today. I suspect it has more to do with calculations made by the Israelis and Hamas themselves. But the truth is, this deal is so bad that no one deserves any praise. the Israelis will be released Approximately 1,900 terrorists and captured Hamas members In exchange for 33 mostly civilian Israeli hostages, some of whom are not alive. Many terrorists scheduled for release committed a terrible atrocity. Like previous hostage deals with terrorists, this will predictably provoke future terrorism. You’ll get even more in return. Furthermore, released terrorists are likely to commit murder again, as many terrorists released in previous deals have been.
Neither Israel nor the United States, the backers of this agreement, appear to have learned the terrible lessons of previous such exchanges. We have summarized them in our October 2023 post. Also referenced in this post. Works from 2011, In it, I criticized the Shalit Agreement, which was a key factor in causing the October 7, 2023 attacks that started the current war.
The horrific Hamas terrorist attack on Israel has exposed various weaknesses in Israel’s security policy, and perhaps that of other Western countries. But what doesn’t get the attention it deserves is the folly of hostage deals with terrorists. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar Probably the mastermind [October] attackit was One of 1,027 Palestinian terrorist prisoners released by Israel in 2011In exchange for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. And one of Hamas’ motives for the attack was to use the captured hostages to secure the release of other Palestinian terrorists held by Israel…
At the time of the 2011 deal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was widely praised for showing how much it valued the lives of its people. I was one of the relatively few detractors of this deal….
It appears that my prediction that this agreement would cost far more innocent lives than it would save was correct, but I had no idea how true this turned out to be. Well over 1,000 people died, making the terrorist attack in which Shinwar played a key role the deadliest in Israeli history and one of the deadliest in world history. It is also Biggest anti-Semitic massacre since the Holocaust….
Simple Economics 101 states that more types of activities can be rewarded. Rewarding hostage takers will predictably encourage them to take more hostages. Furthermore, the terrorists you release may themselves commit further acts of terrorism, as Yahya Sinwar did.
I hope that this lesson will finally be learned. But I’m afraid that’s not the case….
Yahya Sinwar eventually killed by Israeli forces last yearbut not before he masterminded the October 7 attack.
Sadly, it appears I was right to fear that the lessons of the Shalit Accord and other past failures would not be applied beyond October 7th. The current agreement shows that.
And certainly, this is not a simple matter of the Israeli government bowing to the United States. According to opinion polls, the consensus is Very popular in Israelsupported by the majority of public opinion. That’s probably the main reason why the government agreed to it.
I wrote about the problematic political dynamics of the hostage trade in a 2023 post.
[H]The hostages currently being held by terrorists are highly visible to the public, with politicians saying: [Israeli Prime Minister Bibi] Prime Minister Netanyahu has a strong incentive to listen to the distress of his family and friends. It seems cruel not to do so!
In contrast, we cannot and do not know the identity of the future hostages we are encouraging to capture through trade. Nor will we know the identities of future terrorist victims released under the deal. In 2011, no one knew the identity of Yahya Sinwar’s future victims. their The family was in no position to appeal to government authorities for rescue.
In my 2023 post, I also recognize that people may dismiss my views because it is not my friends or relatives who are being held hostage.
I am aware that some may reject the above logic on the grounds that I can only say this because it is not me or my family who are being held hostage by Hamas. If so, maybe you would think differently.
Maybe so. I have never had a friend or family member taken hostage, so I don’t know what I would do if they were. I have I’ve dealt with many death threats (most of them due to my advocacy for immigrant rights). I chose not to give in…. But the small risk I took was nothing compared to the risks endured by hostages from groups like Hamas.
Still, I would like to remind those who tend to succumb to such emotional considerations that future hostages will be the result of the deals we make today. Also There are families who suffer terribly. The same applies to the families of future terrorist victims released under these agreements. We should seek to reduce such suffering, not increase it. And that means remembering Econ 101 and learning how to say “no,” as Israelis should have done in 2011.
Eitan Fuld, whose brother Avi was scheduled to be released in today’s deal, was killed by one of the terrorists. get the point:
“The release of Mr. Ali’s killer is heartbreaking,” he said in a statement. “The big issue for me, and for all of us, is that, unfortunately, this bad deal will add to the families of future victims and families.”
I realize that my views on this transaction are: Opinions of Israeli far-right parties who voted against. I think many of these parties and their agendas are terrible. For example, I have criticized their and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s plans to weaken judicial review in Israel. I am likewise (to put it mildly) not a fan of their repressive and discriminatory policies towards the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Arab minority in Israel. But this is the exact moment when a stopped clock becomes accurate twice a day.
I’m more happy to align myself with libertarian-leaning conservatives. boston globe Columnist Jeff Jacoby said: criticized the transaction For similar reasons.
Will Israel never learn?
The Israeli government has agreed many times in the past to engage in similar lopsided interactions with terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Time and time again, Israel has released hundreds of violent prisoners responsible for the deaths of civilians in exchange for the freedom of hundreds of hostages and prisoners, or sometimes only their bodies. Many times the newly released terrorists pick up where they left off.
As I said above and in my previous posts on these issues, Israelis are not the only ones who have not learned this lesson. Other Western governments, including our own, frequently make similar mistakes.
