- Respected economists and analysts Overall, we expect that Trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs will have a major impact on the US and the global economy. Analysts agreed that market spectators were worse than expected market spectators as the stock market plummeted accordingly on Thursday.
The truth is that economists can’t agree with anything, but President Donald Trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs are rare for analysts that major economic pain is coming, and worse than they predicted. Certainly, it could be “worst than the worst.”
In a speech on Wednesday at the White House, Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on imports from all countries, revealing rising tariffs known as “mutual” in some of the largest US trading partners, including China, Japan and the European Union.
The announcement caused the market to fall, with all major indexes down Thursday afternoon. The benchmark S&P 500 fell 4.6% and the Dow Jones fell about 3.7%, but the high-tech Nasdaq, which has led the stock market to its new highest in recent years, led the losses with a 5.6% drop.
In response, respected economists and analysts from major global banks have raised alarm over a large number of people about potential recessions and predicted changes in the global economic order.
Analysts introduce some of the most pointed take from an analyst as they try to understand the imminent change.
Wedbush Securities: “worst than the worst case scenario”
The most discouraged was Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities. In a memo Wednesday afternoon, the veteran technology analyst and his team said Trump’s tariffs were even worse than expected.
“President Trump has just finished his tariff speech in the White House and will characterize the tariff slate as “worst than the worst case scenario,” analysts wrote.
Ives and his team added that tariffs in China and Taiwan will be particularly hampering technology, causing supply chains of the world’s largest companies to suffer. Analysts called Apple, which produces most iPhones in China, and Nvidia, which has made major exposure to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
In a follow-up note on Thursday, Ives’ team called the Trump administration’s calculations of tariffs “illogical and absurd.”
“If a high school ninth grader presents this customs chart to a teacher in a basic economics class, the teacher said he would sit and take on the assignment,” they wrote.
Analysts at Wedbush suggested that the numbers absurdity indicates that tariff rates may not be final and that trading partners are likely to continue. Otherwise, they write that Stagflation, a fatal combination of low growth and high inflation, will soon follow.
“For the next 24 hours, the world will quickly recognize that these tariff rates will never stay because these tariff rates are shown.
Larry Summers chases after Trump
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers shot Trump in a series of posts on Wednesday following the president’s tariff announcement.
The respected economist wrote that many Americans sacrifice real money in Trump’s speech.
“The president’s rhetoric costs have never been taken an hour to date. After previous tweets, the market continues to move. The best estimate of losses from customs policy is close to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four,” Summers said. I wrote it In a Wednesday post.
In a later post, Summers also criticized the Trump administration’s calculations, saying they made no sense.
“This is about economicizing what is biology, astrology is astronomy, or what RFK is what we think is vaccine science,” Summers said. I wrote it. “Even if you believe in the economics of protectionist merchantists, Trump’s tariff policy makes little sense.”
Finally, Summers, who headed the Treasury Department under President Bill Clinton, declared the tariff announcements were so bad and would not have tolerated him being in the government’s position.
“If the administration that I was part of it had launched an economic policy that was not completely grounded by serious analysis or dangerous and harmful efforts, I would have resigned in protest.” Added.
Goldman Sachs: A hardware company that raises prices
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said tariffs on Wednesday would be higher than expected and would affect hardware companies.
“The magnitude of the tariffs announced is much higher and broader than the US and investors expect, and many may argue that changes may occur through negotiations over the next few days and months, but if maintained, the tariff magnitude will provide limited options to adjust the supply chain or wait for the terminology of the current administration,” they wrote Thursday.
Goldman analysts predicted that “price rises to offset headwinds are not merely modest” due to the range of tariffs affecting all countries.
Analysts predicted that the price of hardware companies would rise by 5%, while some companies that rely heavily on hardware will have the biggest revenue hits of over 50%, including information technology companies Super Micro, broadband, software companies Calix, and optical materials and semiconductor manufacturers.
Oxford Economics: “The global recession is likely to be avoided”
One rare and slightly brighter note comes from economic advisory firm Oxford Economics, whose analysts write that the recession may not be on the horizon.
“Performing US ‘liberation day’ tariff hikes will have a major impact on individual sectors and businesses, further weakening emotions. But our initial assessment suggests that a global recession is likely to be avoided,” wrote the company’s analyst.
Still, US imports could fall 15% over three years due to mutual tariffs, which could lead to global GDP reaching 0.5% points this year and 1% points in 2026, analysts said.
They also believe that hope to alleviate uncertainty after Wednesday’s announcement is unfounded. Even if the country could negotiate with lower tariffs or anything lower, the process would still be long.
“One hope is that transactions are hit quickly. This means that tariff hikes are partially or completely reversed. Such outcomes are possible, but tariffs usually rise rapidly, but fall slowly. Many economies are subject to individual mutual tariffs, so governments may face a long wait before they enter into negotiations.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.
