Last year, global air travel surged to record levels, with airlines consuming far less sustainable jet fuel than expected. This is a disastrous combination of efforts to combat climate change, and aviation has contributed to around 4% of human-induced warming so far.
Most airlines pledge to address the increased contribution of greenhouse gas emissions by using significantly more fuels derived from low-luminescent sources such as spent cooking oils and energy crops. It’s there. Air France-KLM, Delta Air Lines and Cathay Pacific Airways are one of a large group of airlines that are committed to consuming 10% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030.
However, numbers released last month by the International Air Transport Association, these clean fuel adoption has been slower as air travel hits an all-time high of over 10%, or 4%, in 2024. IATA estimates that SAF accounted for around 0.3% of commercial aviation fuel consumption last year. This is well below the previous forecast of the industry group for 2024 0.53%.
To meet its 2030 goal, airlines need to promote 30 times more SAF consumption.
“I think 10% is a likely target that will not be met by 2030,” said Landazjet, a company that builds several sustainable fuel plants around the world, backed by Bill Gates and Microsoft. says Jimmy Samartzis, CEO of the company. “I think that’s the reality of the entire industry.”
All this obscures potentially big issues. Even if airlines could somehow replace 10% of their fuel with release alternatives by the end of the decade, these climate benefits will be wiped out by the expected growth of the industry. For example, British Prime Minister Rachel Reeves has recently spurred climate activists by reciting approval for the construction of the third runway at London’s Heathrow Airport. Meanwhile, IATA predicts global air travel will increase by an additional 8% this year.
“Growth usually scuppers what we’re trying to do on the decarbonising side of aviation,” says Alice Larkin, professor of climate science and energy policy at the University of Manchester in the UK.
The aviation industry counters that air travel is important to the overall economic growth needed to fund a massive energy transition to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change. “What we really need to be able to tackle climate change is more growth… More tax revenue and more to fund all of these things we have to do It’s a lot of money.” Sustainability at IATA.
The aviation industry expects SAF production to surge after 2030, ultimately supplying up to 90% of its fuel. And it is due to a recent shortage of supply, with only a handful of companies producing cleaner fuels.
In the last few months, some new big plants have begun to work. Diamond Green Diesel, a joint venture between Valero Energy and Darling Materials, recently launched a refinery in Texas, capable of producing more than 200 million gallons of SAF per year. Meanwhile, Phillips 66 transformed a refinery near San Francisco by stirring and converting it with renewable fuel.
However, in both cases, refineries can switch production of renewable fuels for road transport or aviation, depending on a variety of factors, including appetite from the airline. Safe costs are at least twice as many as traditional jet fuel, so it’s not clear whether the airline will engulf the available supply. Valero and Phillips 66 officials refused to say how much SAF the refineries have produced so far in 2025.
A new patchwork of regulations could drive more demand. Starting this year, both the European Union and the UK have requested SAF accounts for 2% of jet fuel. Singapore plans to add taxes to tickets next year to buy cleaner fuels, but British Columbia Canada will need to have jet fuel at least 1% SAF by 2028 There is.
However, many airlines oppose these types of requirements. California regulators last year withdrew a proposal to demand more SAF amid opposition from the aviation industry. This left voluntary purchases by airlines supported by a patchwork of government incentives as the sole driver of many clean aviation fuels in the world.
This voluntary demand has disappointed some manufacturers of SAF. Neste Oyj, producer of Finnish Cleaner Aviation Fuel, warned in October that voluntary purchases were inactive, saying some airlines were trying to postpone carbon return plans. (Air New Zealand abandoned its 2030 climate target last summer, but Neste declined to name a particular career.)
There were no signs of pullback at the Bloombergnef conference in San Francisco last week. There, staff at Delta and United Airlines Holdings Inc. promoted their continued commitment to clean fuel.
“We know that it’s the right thing for United. We know that it’s the right thing for shareholders,” said Lauren Riley, United’s chief sustainability officer, during the conference committee. It states. “We will continue to invest in sustainable aviation fuels.”
SAF accounted for 0.17% of United’s jet fuel consumption in 2023. This was close to the world average that year. Delta came in at 0.09%. Some European airlines are moving further. Air France-KLM leads all passenger airlines with over 1% SAF in 2023 (most individual airlines have yet to report their 2024 totals).
Riley praised the new state’s incentives, including Illinois’ $1.50 credit per $1.50.
“I want to step into the CFO’s office now and say, “I want to source this sustainable aviation fuel for use at O’Hare, the hub in this hometown. She said, “These.” It’s really, really important to have a state-based policy.”
However, the unexpected setback is still imminent for many SAF plants under construction. Bloombergnef, which tracks developments for renewable fuel facilities, discovered that 46 plants announced delays last year.
When Landazjet announced the opening of a new SAF plant in rural Georgia about a year ago, it hoped to achieve 10 million gallons of annual production by the end of 2024. However, the factory is not producing jet fuel yet. The facility was hit by Hurricane Helen in September and knocked offline for six weeks. It also addresses “several standard equipment issues and challenges with things like compressors,” says Samartzis of Lanzajet.
“It takes time to work your way, resolve twists, optimize your units and make sure you’re producing fuel safely,” he says.
These challenges will encourage airlines to meet their climate targets by having sufficient SAF and purchasing all available fuel.
“When it comes to SAF, a lot of people band a fair number of numbers with SAF. Once you say it, it just happens,” says Larkin of the University of Manchester. “At this point, I’m very skeptical of whether we can make such an amount.”
